Shinooki looks poised to strike with course and conditions to suit

To celebrate the countdown to Christmas, the Racing Post is giving away one piece of paid content free each day. Here, Graeme Rodway gives his best bets for Tuesday's action

Sumner Beach
1.00 Southwell
1pt win

Shinooki
1.10 Fakenham
1pt win

Throckley
2.30 Southwell
1pt win

With temperatures set to drop to -3C at Fakenham and freezing fog forecast, conditions are sure to be gruelling at the Norfolk venue should the track pass a 8am inspection.

Tacky, dead ground in the middle of winter is ideal for Shinooki and the course specialist looks capable of recording a fourth victory at the track in the National Heritage Centre For Horseracing & Sporting Art Handicap Hurdle (1.10).

Course form figures of 2113213 illustrate Shinooki’s liking for these tight turns and all three of his wins at the track have been achieved on soft or heavy going in the month of January.

The last of those victories came over this 2m7½f trip under Wayne Hutchinson this year and Shinooki has dropped nicely in the weights to race off the same mark as for that success. Hutchinson is also back on board for the first time since.

Alex Hales’s gelding was third over course and distance on his latest visit to the track last month and followed that with a close second over fences at Hereford, but those efforts came on ground (good) quicker than ideal and the gruelling conditions here are more suitable.

Hales has saddled three winners from just nine runners in the last fortnight and Shinooki can go one better than when second in this race last year. I’ll be hoping for around the 4-1 mark.

There shouldn’t be any weather concerns on the Fibresand at Southwell and Sumner Beach catches the eye in the sunbets.co.uk Download The App Handicap (1.00).

An easy winner of a 5f novice event on his debut and only visit to this course in April last year, Sumner Beach had the now 96-rated Danielsflyer two and a quarter lengths behind that day and a reproduction that form would almost certainly be good enough to land this Class 5 contest off his declining handicap mark.

The big question is whether he is still capable of performing at that level as he was off the track for more than a year following that opening victory and has shown only glimpses of his best form in seven subsequent outings. However, all those runs have come away from this track and his last four outings have been on Tapeta at Newcastle.

His four-length fourth off a mark of 75 over this mile trip at Newcastle two outings ago in a combination of tongue-strap and cheekpieces proved he retains plenty of ability and it is worth taking a chance that the return to Fibresand can spark him back to form.

The selection has dropped 10lb in the weights since October to a career-low mark of 70 and has been found a good opportunity off the ceiling rating in this 0-70 contest by shrewd trainer Brian Ellison, who has booked Stevie Donohoe to ride. That’s an eyecatching booking as Donohoe has three winners from ten rides for the stable in the last five seasons.

The cheekpieces he has worn on his last two runs have been discarded, but the tongue-strap remains and this lightly raced three-year-old might offer some value against several exposed rivals. I’m hoping he might be a double-figure price.

Throckley is another returning to Fibresand following a poor run on Tapeta and he looks capable of bouncing back to form in the Betway Claiming Stakes (2.30).

This will be Throckley’s first run in claiming company and only last month he ran away with a Class 5 handicap over 1m4f at this course by two and a quarter lengths on his debut for Conor Dore. This will be his first run below that level on that Flat and that was a strong contest for the higher grade. The third-placed Good Time Ahead has since won twice at this track, while fourth home Daily Trader won in this Class 6 grade at Wolverhampton next time.

Throckley put in a dismal effort when tailed off at that track last time, but that was his first look at that course and surface and he just didn’t take to it.

Graham Lee, who was on board for his course win two runs ago, but not last time, is back in the plate and has two wins and a second from seven rides for the yard in the last five seasons.

The drop a furlong in trip shouldn’t be a problem and with Every Chance, Brigadoon and Tatting all likely to be popular, my selection should be a fair price. I’m expecting around 5-1.

What I learned in the last week...

It looked hard work at Chelmsford on Sunday and the Tapeta at Wolverhampton has been riding slower than usual too. At this time of year when extra track maintenance is needed in the cold weather, you won’t go far wrong sticking with proven stayers on the all-weather.

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