Why working out the pace points you in the direction of smart hurdler

1.55 Ascot
Sky Bet Extra Places Every Day Novices' Limited Handicap Chase | 2m1f | 4yo+ | ITV4/SKY

Pinpointing who will make the pace and how fast they will go should be the main starting point when analysing any race. But extra attention in the jumping sphere should be paid to novice handicap chases over 2m, given their tendency to turn into a sprint in the closing stages.

It would be fair to assume there will be quicker than average sectionals throughout the early part of this competitive affair despite testing underfoot conditions, though, given Editeur Du Gite has produced his best run of the season when dictating.

His jumping frailties are a major concern, but he achieved a joint career-best Racing Post Rating of 131 at this track in October and strikes as a horse well capable of defying his current mark if he can put in a clean round. Put a line through his last run as he became outpaced on good ground at Newbury and he should be better suited by these conditions.

Evan Williams: runs the lightly raced Mack The ManCredit: Harry Trump

With that aforementioned pair tussling things out in front, it's eminently possible this will set up for hold-up, strong-travelling opponents. Step forward Mack The Man.

A sharp hurdler who would have played a hand in the Betfair Hurdle last year but for being brought down at the last, Mack The Man is another who will appreciate testing conditions and could prove the class angle.

This time last year, Mack The Man plundered a heavy ground Listed handicap hurdle at Sandown. Back in second was the now 154-rated Protektorat and subsequent three-time Grade 2-winning hurdler Song For Someone finished third.

Whether he can replicate that form over fences is yet to be confirmed and he will have to step up markedly on his reappearance, but he could prove pretty smart and this race may well ideally suit him.
Analysis by Tom Collins

What they say

Sam Twiston-Davies, rider of Sir Valentine
After a successful hurdling campaign we'd hoped to have a fun season over fences with him – he ran well at Cheltenham before making a bad mistake at Wetherby last time which knocked the stuffing out of him. If he jumps better he'd have a decent chance.

Evan Williams, trainer of Mack The Man
He's a smashing horse who deserves a crack at this. One thing that won't bother him is the ground as the slower the better for him.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Flegmatik
He won well at Carlisle and then was running very well at Sandown until he was hampered on two occasions. He'll enjoy the slow ground and should give a good account.

Gary Moore: has ground concerns for Editeur Du Gite and thinks Ar Mest is badly handicappedCredit: Edward Whitaker

Gary Moore, trainer of Ar Mest and Editeur Du Gite
Ar Mest is badly handicapped so will do well to win, while Editeur Du Gite may not like the ground as soft as this. He ran well at the track on his first start of the season but then not so well at Newbury last time. If he can reproduce his first run he would have a chance providing he handles the ground.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Oistrakh Le Noir
He was a good horse in his younger days but has had a few issues along the way. He goes well at home and we've put the hood on him to try and regain his spark. It's a tough race but he deserves to take his chance.

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