Who will handle drying conditions best? Graeme Rodway has the key sire stats

1.25 Yarmouth
quinnbet.com Handicap | 7f | 3yo | Sky

The ground looks likely to be officially described as on the soft side of good at Yarmouth, but it will be interesting to see if that’s how conditions ride come the time of this race. There is no further rain forecast and the wind will be whistling in from the sea. It could dry out fast.

Numoor has only run once on turf and that was on heavy ground at Newmarket in October when he looked well-suited by testing conditions, landing a 7f handicap by half a length.

His other runs have come on the all-weather so it’s hard to gauge his optimum conditions, but his sire Siyouni’s progeny often handle better going. Since 2016, his offspring have a 15 per cent strike-rate on good or faster and are only eight per cent if soft is in the description.

That suggests Numoor will be versatile enough to cope should it dry out, but what about likely market rival Akkeringa? He produced his best run on good to soft here last week.

His sire Dutch Art’s progeny handle quick going, but the female side of his pedigree shows more of a preference for cut. His dam Annie’s Fortune was well suited by going with soft in the description and half-sister Annie De Vega’s only turf runs came on good to soft or softer.

The most versatile runners with regards to ground might be Prospect and Dashing Dick.

Prospect’s highest Racing Post Rating was achieved on heavy, but he has run to within 2lb of that figure on good to firm, while Dashing Dick’s best turf effort came on good to firm last time.

However, Dashing Dick’s sire Cable Bay’s progeny have a 13 per cent strike-rate on soft or heavy ground (+£16.88 to £1 level stakes), so easy conditions shouldn’t be a problem either.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

What They Say

Stuart Williams, trainer of Akkeringa
He ran well to be second in a novice last week and he has been put up 5lb for that so this is an opportunity to run off his old mark that we’ve had to take. Oisin Murphy is back on board and we are hopeful.

Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Numoor
He finished off his race well on the all-weather last time and this looks the right spot for him. We expect him to handle the ground and hopefully he can go one better.

Marco Botti, trainer of Evening Song
She was too free over a mile at Nottingham on her reappearance and didn’t finish so we are dropping her back in trip. Ideally I would have liked to have run her in a fillies' handicap but there aren’t any at the present time.

Charlie Fellowes, trainer of George Scott
He ran a nice race on his comeback at Kempton where he came from a bit far back and has moved forward since. I think the straight track will suit him and he has the right man (Jamie Spencer) on board. Hopefully the ground isn’t too soft.

Martin Smith, trainer of Zen Dancer
Adam Kirby said he didn’t feel right last time which is why he disappointed but he seems fine again now and would have an each-way chance. Seven furlongs on soft ground may stretch his stamina but we have the option of dropping him back if it does.

Chris Dwyer, trainer of Epic Express
It’s his first run for his new owner Michael Foulger. I think he’ll like the ground and the track should suit him.
Reporting by David Milnes

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