Who might be the ideal candidate for a tricky Chelmsford middle-distance handicap?
The two divisions of this handicap in 2020 went the way of a four-year-old and a three-year-old, but the two runnings since have gone to the Classic generation, with three-year-olds still receiving 2lb in weight for age at this late stage of the year.
Three of the winners have been sent off 5-2 or shorter in the market and the same number carried no more than 9st 5lb to victory.
Although it seems a bit too early in the race's history to rely on shallow trends, the sweet-spot horse on the card is Penzance, a three-year-old carrying 9st 3lb. He ran well to be second over course and distance in June before joining Mick Appleby from Simon and Ed Crisford, and was an encouraging fourth on his stable debut at Wolverhampton last month.
Talking of the Crisfords, who are 4-23 with older handicappers on this course, their Liseo is the most significant in-form class-dropper in the field, having been beaten a length and a half into fourth in a Class 2 1m3f Kempton handicap last month. The seventh, 11th and 12th have won since. He is also a course-and-distance winner.
The other in-form class-dropper is King's Code, representing David Evans. A reproduction of his latest encouraging Wolverhampton fourth would make him competitive and Rossa Ryan, who has a 24 per cent strike-rate for the yard over the last five years, takes the ride.
Marco Botti is operating at a 27 per cent strike-rate at Chelmsford this year but his runner Silver Gunn is 0-5 on the all-weather.
Billy Loughnane renews a winning association with Rogue Soldier for Tom Clover, but a return to handicaps off 76 in a higher grade makes this no gimme.
Buxted Too is the other course-and-distance winner in the field, but he needs a revival, while Sean Woods reaches for first-time cheekpieces with Borgi.
Race analysis by Dave Randall
What they say
Marco Botti, trainer of Silver Gunn
He has plenty of weight again, which is a concern, but he showed he handled the track when fourth there last time and has been in good form since.
Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Liseo
He’s been a fun horse for us this year and we know he handles the track as he won there over this trip in September. He must have another good shout.
Sean Woods, trainer of Borgi
He has a nice draw [in stall three] and I was pleased with how he ran last time when he was runner-up. He has a good jockey in Daniel Muscutt taking over from Robert Havlin, who is suspended.
David Evans, trainer of King’s Code
He finished off well over an extended nine furlongs at Wolverhampton last time and shaped as if this longer trip would suit. It’s a different track but hopefully he’ll be thereabouts.
Gay Kelleway, trainer of Silver Nightfall
This might not be her track but we’re looking forward to getting her back in action after a break in what looks a warm race.
Reporting by David Milnes
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