'She loves Cheltenham and so do we' - International Hurdle quotes and insight

Saturday: 3.00 Cheltenham
Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2) | 2m1f | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

It’s hard to believe the requirement to declare a wind operation has been in place in Britain for only just under three years. It feels as if we've had the information for longer than that and one of the reasons is because so many horses are given breathing surgery every season.

So, despite the short time span, there is already a big sample of evidence on the effect of a wind op, and the unanimous verdict among most pundits is that horses improve on their second run after the surgery, rather than the first. Do the numbers back up that theory?

The answer is, yes. Since the start of 2018, horses having their first run after wind surgery have struck at around 11 per cent for an impact value of 1.07, but those numbers increase to 12 per cent and 1.16 when considering runners having their second start after the operation.

A rise of one per cent might not seem significant, but it holds a little more weight when you consider we are dealing with a sample of nearly 5,000 horses over the period in question.

Furthermore, if you consider only horses having their second run after an operation who had run well (finished in the first three) on their first start back from the surgery, the strike-rate becomes 19 per cent, for an even better impact value of 1.81. So why is all this important?

Song For Someone lost his way after winning this race last year, but he had wind surgery over the summer and returned with a good second to Buzz in the Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle on his seasonal return last month. All the evidence I’ve outlined suggests he can do even better here.

Song For Someone represents Tom Symonds and the trainer’s record also points to his horses improving on their second run after the surgery. Symonds is just 11 per cent (4-37) with runners on first start after an op, but that jumps to 21 per cent (6-29) on their following run.

A healthy impact value (2.03) and profit of £14.75 to £1 level stakes will be enough to convince many that Song For Someone can make it back-to-back International victories.

Song For Someone had Guard Your Dreams behind in third at Ascot, so it’s hard to see that form being reversed, and maybe the biggest danger will be the ultra-reliable Sceau Royal. He will be bidding for a fourth victory at Cheltenham and sets the standard narrowly on RPRs.
Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

Song bids for repeat success

Song For Someone attempts successive wins in this Grade 2 event, a feat trainer Tom Symonds said would be indescribable.

The six-year-old, owned by Lady Gibbings, beat Silver Streak by a nose last season and bounced back to form on his return when second to Buzz in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot.

Symonds said: “I was very much encouraged by his Ascot run and the way he went through the race pleased us. He came out of that in good form and goes there fresh and well.

"It’s a trappy race; the Irish horses look interesting and Sceau Royal is a quality horse. We’re hopeful rather than confident in a race like this.

Tom Symonds: 'We're hopeful rather than confident in a race like this'Credit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

“This race is regarded as a route to somewhere but it’s a very good race in its own right. To win it last year was something else, so if we were able to win it again it would be something more than anything I can describe.”

What they say

Alan King, trainer of Sceau Royal
We were going to go for the Christmas Hurdle but we made a late call to put him in here, and he worked very well in the week. His Fighting Fifth run was good but that last blizzard did for us as that was the last thing he needed before the race. He still ran with great credit and he seems in good order. If it doesn’t come off, so be it, but we have to have a crack at a race like this.

Chris Richardson, managing director of Cheveley Park Stud, owners of Ballyadam
We thought he'd come back to where he's most comfortable. He's in good form and we're going to roll the dice. It looks competitive but we need to learn a bit more.

Dan Skelton, trainer of Wilde About Oscar
I'd give him a chance, although I would have liked the ground slower. It looked like he didn't stay two and a half miles at Aintree last time and two miles one on this track will be perfect.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Guard Your Dreams
We'd prefer to run him over further but if there's any rain that'll help him. He probably wants two and a half miles, but it's big prize-money and stranger things have happened.

Olly Murphy, trainer of Hunters Call
He’s retained an awful lot of ability considering he turns 12 next month. It was either run him off top weight in a handicap or go for a Graded race, so we’re giving this a go. He’ll be ridden cold and if he can pick up some prize-money we’d be delighted.

Paul Hennessy, trainer of Heaven Help Us
She's in great form and was out on the course strutting her stuff on Friday morning. She loves Cheltenham and so do we. On ratings, she's entitled to be here. It's just brilliant to be a part of an exciting race like this.
Reporting by Jack Haynes

Read all of Saturday's previews:

12.40 Cheltenham: 'With a clear run, he'll win' - Skelton seeks to move on from shock Drogo defeat

1.50 Cheltenham: 'He's a player' - trainer insight on a quality Racing Post Gold Cup

2.25 Cheltenham: Is it wise to back Byrnes or should we look elsewhere for Albert Bartlett clues?

2.40 Doncaster: 'I hope he's got the wow factor' - Porticello out to cement Triumph claims

3.35 Cheltenham: 'They all have chances' - King triple-handed in bid to improve Cheltenham record

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