Is it worth taking on the favourite Sebastopol in Listed handicap chase?

1.15 Ayr
Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) | 2m½f | 5yo+ | ITV/RTV

The Scotty Brand Handicap Chase is complicated by the lingering presence of Dubai Days and Coach Carter. Both ran on Friday, the former winning, and normally, the assumption is neither will turn up.

However, in recent years this contest has become synonymous with Theinval, who has won two of the last three runnings and achieved both successes having lost at Ayr either the previous day or two days earlier.

Perhaps Theinval’s exploits have changed the way some trainers view this race. Dubai Days is the more interesting proposition and will take a larger chunk out of the betting if withdrawn, as seems likely, but the likelihood is Sebastopol will be sent off favourite.

Sebastopol has proved a talented but inconsistent chaser. Two of his four chase defeats have come at short prices, but both were over trips that stretched his endurance.

The eight-year-old’s two chase runs over 2m on good ground have yielded a four-and-three-quarter-length second to Third Time Lucki (possibly flattered by a late faller) and an easy victory at Kempton off 136 in March.

An 8lb rise demands more in a stronger heat, but the ground could ease before race time and that wouldn’t be ideal for Sebastopol.

Malystic is surely the value play under Brian Hughes. A rider taking a look around approaching the home straight is usually an indicator of confidence, and Hughes exuded that on Peter Niven's runner as he was tracking Allmankind in the Future Champion Novices’ Chase on this card last year.

Malystic was undoubtedly travelling better than Allmankind four out but stamina failed him over the 2m4½f trip.

Perhaps a breathing issue also cost him. Returning from 321 days off and wind surgery at Doncaster in March, Malystic was ahead before unseating poor Callum Bewley at the eighth. The loose horse ran all the way to the line and while any unseat hardly rates an ideal prep, it could have been worse. A piece of long-term planning could pay off.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Reign to conquer?

Some Reign has a second try at winning this following an episode to forget a year ago when he was found to have burst a blood vessel after finishing last of the five finishers.

Trainer Rose Dobbin was of the opinion that the run may well have come too soon after his previous win at Carlisle and has given the 11-year-old an easier prep this time around by running him in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso last month.

Well beaten that day, Some Reign could well outrun his odds if he decides he wants to put his best foot forward at the start.

Dobbin said: "The first hurdle with him is whether he behaves himself and jumps off. We ran him in it last year but he was not long back from winning at Carlisle that day so may well have been feeling the effects. We ran him back from a break in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso recently but the ground was a bit soft for him. He’s a classy horse on his day and could nick a place if he runs up to his best."

What they say

Dan Skelton, trainer of Hatcher
He’ll like the ground and the track but the handicapper hasn’t given him any peace yet. He may have to come down a few pounds before he’s competitive.

Peter Niven, trainer of Malystic
He fell at Doncaster last time when leading but seems fine which is good as he’s had a series of niggly things this year. We still feel he’s a good horse and I expect him to improve again from this run.

Rebecca Menzies, trainer of Return Ticket and Sao
Return Ticket goes well fresh and will like the ground if it’s quick. He seems in good form at home. Sao really needs it soft and a strong pace. He’s had a break since running in a race with no pace on at Doncaster last time following which he was not quite right.

Iain Jardine, trainer of Gold Des Bois
He's a nice horse who's put in some great efforts for us without winning, especially at Doncaster. Two miles on good ground will suit him.

Nick Alexander, trainer of Dubai Days
He won at Ayr today [Friday], but I don’t think he’ll run.
Reporting by David Milnes

Read all of Saturday's previews:

1.50 Ayr: His talent is undeniable - but can Dusart strike despite short turnaround?

2.25 Ayr: Expert analysis and key trainer quotes for the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr

2.45 Newbury: Which trainer thinks his mare will 'run a very big race' in Grade 2?

3.00 Ayr: 'It's a red-hot race' - novice chasers clash in Grade 2 Future Champions

3.35 Ayr: 'She's in great form' - Christian Williams on his leading Scottish National duo

3.35 Ayr: Runner-by-runner guide: key quotes and star ratings for Scottish Grand National

Is there another Poetic Flare lurking on trials day at Leopardstown?

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