Two Taffs should be much more at home granted easier Warwick test

3.15 Warwick
Paddy Power From The Horses Mouth Warwick Castle Handicap Chase | 2m4f, 5yo+ | RTV/ITV4

The top two in the early betting for this race were Belami Des Pictons and Two Taffs, who share unfortunate recent history – both missed the whole of 2018 and a few months besides.

Belami Des Pictons was fourth in the BetVictor Gold Cup on his return and it is presumably that performance that puts him so prominent in the betting here. It is harder to forget that either side of that run he has been a disappointing favourite at a similar level to this. Admittedly, both have been over three miles.

He looked a touch shy of pace at Cheltenham, though, and the fitting of cheekpieces might suggest that connections also have reservations about returning to this trip at a less testing track.

Two Taffs is also dropping back in trip, but in his case it seems a much more natural move. He came into the straight in the Ladbrokes Trophy travelling nearly as well as anything, but weakened from four out.

He clearly failed to stay. On his final run in 2017 at Ayr's Scottish Grand National meeting, Two Taffs won a Listed handicap over this trip and he is only 1lb higher now. On the Newbury evidence, and his run in the West Yorkshire Hurdle the time before, he is every bit as good as he was.

Like Belami Des Pictons, Gala Ball will wear cheekpieces for the first time. He is coming here off a win in this grade and is only 2lb higher, but that would portray a false parity between this race and that one. He is back to a career-high mark now at the age of ten and needs the headgear to have a positive effect.

One of the most interesting angles in the race, both as a runner and a potential component of the pace, is Katpoli. He strides on, jumps well when going this way round and is clearly improving. He won convincingly at Wetherby last time, shaping as though 2m4f would be within his compass.

Purely on form, prices around 13-2 underestimate his profile. The niggle is the ground. He is a long-strider who might always be that bit more comfortable when it is testing.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

Key stats

Philip Hobbs has a 26 per cent strike-rate over the last fortnight, with five winners from 19 runners.

Generous Day and Belami Des Pictons are two-from-two at Warwick, but the latter has failed to get his head in front since February 2017.

What they say

Dan Skelton, trainer of Two Taffs
Dropping in trip is ideal as he didn’t stay in the Ladbrokes Trophy. I think the ground should be fine and the track is ideal. I have no excuses really, he should run well.

Michael Scudamore, trainer of Northern Beau
She’s done nothing wrong in all of her runs this season, most of them have been around two mile but she has run over two-and-a-half in the past. It’s a competitive race but it seems to suit her being in races with a light weight on her back. Ground will be fine, she will need a career-best to be competitive but she’s in good form.

Henry Oliver, trainer of Generous Day
I ran him back quick enough the last day and drying ground will only help his chances – he likes slightly better spring ground. He’s in good order at home and he’s fresh. He likes the track, he’s run there twice, and we’re hoping for a big run if the ground is suitable.

Noel George, assistant to Tom George, trainer of Clondaw Castle
He pulled off a shoe at Cheltenham last time and it wasn't his true running. Hopefully the ground has dried out a bit.

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Gala Ball
He could possibly do with softer ground but the forecast good to soft should be okay.

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