Stuff happens - and that's the only case I can make against A Plus Tard

You think you know what's going to happen – we all do – but we've been wrong before. The reason they run the races, rather than just handing out trophies to those who own the favourites, is this: stuff happens. And it's that nebulous stuff which would seem to pose the biggest danger to A Plus Tard in today's Betfair Chase.

I did try to put together a form case against him but the resulting construction was a shoogly thing, ready to fall down on the slightest provocation. It was a bit like building a house of cards on a tray across your lap, in the back seat of a car with no suspension, being driven round the Lake District by a reckless drunk.

Perhaps one of my colleagues may have fashioned something more convincing for display on subsequent pages. Like a baffled contestant on The Great British Bake-Off, I should be slyly looking around to see how everyone else is doing it.