Tom Collins assesses the contenders in Newbury's feature handicap

2.40 Newbury
MansionBet's Royal Ascot Special Handicap | 6f | 3yo | RTV

Three-year-old handicaps are tricky to decipher at the best of times, but with just 8lb separating the top and bottom weight in this 12-strong field and none of the runners having raced yet this year, finding the winner will require a mixture of luck and judgement.

Trainer form is important at this stage of the season and that factor points you to the Andrew Balding-trained Rodin, who was last seen in winning form over five furlongs at Southwell in February.

He was sent off a strong 4-6 favourite that day but didn't look like breaking his maiden until the final 50 yards, when he stayed on powerfully to score by a head.

The turf and longer trip will help, but Southwell form doesn't often translate elsewhere and he looks a favourite you would want to take on, despite Balding's impressive strike-rate since racing resumed.

Tom Clover's team couldn't be in better form, and he is represented by the promising Broughtons Gold, who could be chucked in off a mark of 71 after just two outings. It is a positive that Andrea Atzeni has been booked for the ride.

Tom Clover: has been in great form since racing resumed in Britain last week

Tambourine Girl and Aweemaweh were winners on the all-weather last time out and may be at their best on a synthetic surface over a furlong further, while James Doyle's presence in the saddle on Punchbowl Flyer warrants extra attention.

However, the most likely winner of the race is the Richard Hannon-trained Al Dawodiya. She looked all at sea on the track at Goodwood on debut last August, but showed a big chunk of improvement when second at Chelmsford on her second start following a 116-day break.

She travelled like a useful prospect that day only to be run down in the closing stages when the petrol tank ran dry. Al Dawodiya was unlucky to bump into a useful debutant when dropped to this trip last time and will improve for the switch to turf.
Race analysis by Tom Collins

What they say

Richard Hannon, trainer of Al Dawodiya and Lexington Storm
It looks like quite a competitive race but ours are in good form and they should run good races. Al Dawodiya has done well from two to three and she'll hopefully go well. Lexington Storm didn't have any luck last time but fingers crossed things go a bit more to plan here.

Dan Downie, racing manager to Owners Group 041, owners of Tambourine Girl
I think it's a good race but we're really happy with her. She's progressed from two to three and looks a lot stronger. She can be a bit like a bullet from a gun out of the stalls but hopefully she'll settle better. I'd like to think she's grown up a little bit and can run well.

Mick Channon, trainer of Aweemaweh
He seems in good form and I'm hoping he'll be able to knock on the door. It's his first start back on grass and we're not too sure where we're going with him yet, so we'll see what happens. I'm very pleased with his work and the form of his win in March looks pretty solid. He might need seven furlongs but six won't be a problem. We'll see how good he is here and then make a plan.

Pat Phelan, trainer of Epsom Faithfull
It's a long time since her last run so we'll see. She's well, we're happy with her and she's ready. She's not a hugely scopey filly but having said that she's got a bit stronger over the winter. She's won twice over six so that'll be fine for her but we don't know how she'll handle the faster ground.
Reporting by James Stevens

Download the knowledge of more than 200 experts with our free mobile app - it lets you study the form, get the latest tips and place a bet on the go. Get the app here