The trends you cannot ignore in the Scottish Grand National - and those you can

It is well known that novices have a strong record in the Scottish Grand National. It should probably go beyond that, into the realms of a truism.

Generally, novices in the Scottish National are a week away from losing that status, which is defined only by a line in the sand. There are four novices among this year's 22 runners, one of whom has been chasing longer than the favourite Aye Right. The only thing that distinguishes novices at this stage are the least exposed horses in the field.

Soldier Of Love is the long-standing novice. He appeared only twice in his first season over fences and made his name by racking up a four-timer in the summer. Normally summer form is easy to downplay when it comes to ultra-competitive handicaps the following spring, but an exception can be made here considering Soldier Of Love gave Coole Cody 4lb and a beating and was second to Galvin in October in his two runs before finding the ground at Cheltenham's November meeting too soft.