Signs suggest Melrose test will suit unexposed colt

Have you had a look at Saturday's Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (2.25) yet? If so, you probably asked two questions when examining likely favourite First In Line: Will he stay? And will he be good enough?

Neither question is answered by a surface reading of his form. He has run three times, all over 1m2f in maiden or novice races. He has never been tested at a trip near 1m6f, nor in any sort of handicap, let alone one with a six-figure purse from a lofty mark of 96.

Even though he has run only three times, his tracking data supplies strong clues that he can rise to the occasion on both counts.

His average stride frequency, or cadence, was recorded at Doncaster last time as 2.16 strides per second. The average for horses who run over 1m2f is just over 2.25, while at 1m6f it is 2.20 and at 2m it is 2.15. Obviously, these margins aren't huge but they point quite strongly towards First In Line thriving up in trip.

His stride length data is also illuminating. This measure correlates primarily with ability: what most top-class horses have in common is an above-average stride length. First In Line has recorded an average stride length of 7.58m (slightly more than 24'10"), which is longer than superstar stablemates Stradivarius and Enable.

All other things being equal, a horse who can record an average stride length longer than 7.5m is more than three times more likely to be rated 100+ than one with a shorter stride.

The figures would indicate that there is a good chance that First In Line will both benefit from being moved up half a mile in distance and prove to have the ability to overcome a rating of 96. His position as favourite is seemingly down to more than just his attractive profile and leading connections.

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