'She's been in good form and has a good shout' - who thinks a step up in trip favours his filly?

The logical starting point for this fillies' handicap is the sole last-time-out winner Warren Hill, a relatively unexposed filly who built on a series of respectable efforts to win at Nottingham 27 days ago.

Of those to come out of that race since, the next two home have been comprehensively beaten and the fourth has finished a narrow second. Nevertheless, Warren Hill won in clearcut style and should have more to offer given she fetched 100,000gns as a yearling – the most of those to go to auction in this field – and is named after one of the historic gallops in Newmarket.

Her trainer Roger Varian has a Bath strike-rate of 32 per cent, although his five course runners this year have yet to yield a winner.

Mayfair Gold holds similar claims off an identical handicap mark and her second at Chelmsford last time can be upgraded as she was forced to race widest of all throughout. The third Silver Nightfall endorsed that form by winning at Kempton a week ago.

Most interesting is arguably Avon Light, who gets her first shot at handicap company off a mark of 77, which compares favourably with a Racing Post Rating of 83. The horses to have beaten her so far wouldn't look out of place in Pattern company and it would be reasonable to expect a career-best effort in these conditions.

Connections of Divina Grace have tended to hand her stiff tasks at decent tracks and she has been outclassed twice in Group class. This company and trip should be more to her liking than the 1m6f she faced at Newmarket last time, but others make greater appeal.
Race analysis by Maddy Playle

What they say

Hugo Palmer, trainer of Reel Rosie
She’s new to us and this will tell us a lot about her. She’s nicely drawn and her past history tells us that she’s effective on fast ground. This is very much a fact-finding mission.

Greg Cheyne, rider of Tamilla
She’s dropped a bit in the handicap, which will help her chances, although she likes soft ground, which it doesn’t look like we’re going to get. Things didn’t go right for her last time, so you can ignore that run. It's my first ride at Bath but I've watched a few videos.

Rae Guest, trainer of Divina Grace
She’ll enjoy the ground if it continues to dry out and this trip should be more suitable for her, as she didn’t stay a mile and six last time. She has a good each-way chance.

Jack Channon, trainer of Flash Bardot
She’s been a very consistent sort for us and ran third to a couple of good sorts at Salisbury last time. This looks a touch easier than that and we are expecting another good run.

Roger Varian, trainer of Warren Hill
She was rewarded for her consistency when winning over a mile and a quarter at Nottingham last time when she shaped as if this step up in trip would suit. She’s been in good form since and has a good shout.
Reporting by David Milnes

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