Pietro Innocenzi gives his verdict on the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2)| 2m4½f | 4yo+ | ITV/RTV

Tipster Analysis

It is a big 35 minutes for Harry Fry, who saddles If The Cap Fits in the Cleeve Hurdle and King Roland here. We wish him well, but it's hard to justify why King Roland is so short in the betting.

Indeed, he comes into this the lowest-rated of the runners with marks and beat little of note at Exeter on his latest start.

He can only be judged on his hurdles debut in November when second at Newbury. The winner was beaten 21 lengths in a Grade 1 next time, so we're talking solid if unspectacular form.

The old intangible 'potential' definitely applies to him, but this looks a tighter race than the betting implies.

Protektorat (yellow silks) leads Imperial Alcazar over the last on New Year's DayCredit: Edward Whitaker

Protektorat was almost on the wrong end of the biggest miscarriage of justice since the Ascot Gold Cup was taken off Royal Gait in 1988 when briefly demoted after winning a Ballymore trial here on his first crack at this trip.

His form has a bit more substance than the favourite's and penalties are no barrier to success in this.

House Island, the highest-rated runner on British marks, is a game front-runner, although the chances of him being allowed a soft lead look next to zero with Irish raider Rocket Lad in opposition.

Any duel leading to a strong gallop would definitely suit Protektorat, who came from last to first when winning on New Year's Day.

Nicky Henderson has sent out the last two winners of the race, but the lightly raced Time Flies By will have to improve on his hurdles debut third of four at Ascot, where he was keen and novicey.

I wouldn't underestimate Harry Senior, though. He scored with plenty in hand when stepped up in trip at Chepstow over Christmas and could be on a sharp upward curve.
Pietro Innocenzi

What the stats say

Since this race was introduced in 2005 there has only been one runner trained in Ireland, namely Rathvinden who finished runner-up for Willie Mullins at odds of 6-4 in 2014.

Given Ireland has accounted for nine of the last 14 winners of the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at the festival the Emmet Mullins-trained Rocket Lad is of interest, especially when he boasts the highest handicap mark of those to have qualified for a rating.

Protektorat must shoulder a 5lb penalty for his reinstated win here but Yanworth (2016) and Wholestone (2017) successfully defied such a burden.

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle prices

King Roland 20-1
Protektorat 25-1
Harry Senior 33-1
Time Flies By 50-1
House Island 100-1

What they say

Tom Messenger, assistant to Dan Skelton, trainer of Protektorat
He goes there in good form and we've always thought a bit of him. He's taken a bit of educating but it all came together last time. He's come forward since and if running to a similar level he should be there or thereabouts. This run will tell us whether to go down the novice or handicap hurdle route at the festival.

Paul Webber, trainer of House Island
He ran a super race in a Grade 2 last time but he was still running a bit in snatches and was still a bit of a baby. I'm hoping he will have sharpened up a bit. It's Trials day and this is a trial for him, where we'll see if he is sharp enough to cope with the track in March, or whether he needs to go somewhere like Aintree. He's in good form and I think he's woken up a bit.

House Island (right) was just denied by Enrilo at SandownCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Harry Fry, trainer of King Roland
He steps up in trip and grade. The step up in trip should be in his favour and we've no concerns with the ground. He took a nice step forward at Exeter and we're looking forward to seeing where we are with him.

Emmet Mullins, trainer of Rocket Lad
We were thinking of the Pertemps for him, but he has quite a high mark, so we decided to try the Graded race route to see where he might fit in. He was disappointing last time but wasn't right after the race. He's in good form now.

Rebecca Curtis, trainer of Ruthless Article
Ideally he wants better ground. We're going novice chasing with him in the spring but as the handicapper has given him a mark of 140 we thought we'd see how good he is as a novice hurdler.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Time Flies By
You would think he is going to need two and a half miles and his jumping wasn't quite slick enough that first day. I'd be hopeful he's a bit sharper and he will appreciate the trip.
Reporting by Scott Burton

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