Performance metrics: Queen Anne an object lesson in the 'late-headway monkey'

It used to surprise me when clock-watchers would be the first to reach for the dismissive term 'late-headway monkey'. Surely these are the people who would be looking to make a big deal out of fast late sectionals?

It needed a bit of reflection for it to make sense. Time-based bettors do not particularly care if a horse's best work comes at the finish. In fact, if a horse hints at deeper ability earlier in the race, it is more likely that they will be the only ones who spot it.

Mohaather undoubtedly caught the eye in the Queen Anne Stakes with his fast finish under hands and heels. But all it proved was that he got out of trouble too late. His very best form is over 7f, maybe if he had broken clear earlier he would have stuttered late on.

This becomes easier to demonstrate up against another who shaped well in the Queen Anne. Like Mohaather, Skardu was out the back early on in a steadily run race. He was a bit further off the rail and managed to get a run two furlongs out, putting in a strong penultimate furlong before hitting a bit of trouble and fading.

Looking at the per-furlong sectional pars in the graph, it can be seen that Skardu's fast furlong was just as quick as Mohaather's. Actually, given the par is slightly quicker in the penultimate furlong his is arguably a bit more impressive.

The main difference is that, with Skardu, we got to see what happened next. And it turned out he maybe was not quite fit – unlike Mohaather, he is a guaranteed stayer over a stiff mile.

Mohaather, then, is like the quiz show mystery box. Open it and see what is inside, by all means, but it is not certain to be the top prize. Considering at the time of writing he is given more than twice the chance Skardu has of winning their rematch in the Summer Mile, I know where my money will be going.

All data courtesy of Total Performance Data, whose tracking covers more than 20 courses in the UK and North America.

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