Performance metrics: a vital piece of Northumberland Plate form, dissected

Analysing stride patterns is of particular use when assessing unexposed horses or those trying a new distance. As with traditional form study, it works most intuitively if runners can be compared directly.

Two of the market principals for the Northumberland Plate, Australis and Caravan Of Hope, were first and second at Wolverhampton over 1m6f last time. What does the data say about their chances up in grade, and up in trip?

Watch the replay for a key piece of Northumberland Plate form

The first point is that both are worthy of attempting a top handicap. The finishing speed percentage at Wolverhampton for both runners was well above par and yet they still distanced themselves from the rest. That is the sign of horses who were even more superior than the bare result.

Watch the race and you might think that Australis, who was off the bridle earlier, would be better suited to 2m. That would arguably be simplistic.

It is not unusual for sectionals to show that the stronger traveller was ultimately outspeeded. It seems counter-intuitive and the working theory is that horses that are stoked up earlier can carry a bit more momentum into the dash for home. That seems to be what happened at Wolverhampton.

What could be most significant, though, is their stride lengths. The replay makes clear that Australis is the bigger of the two and, while his average stride was not much longer than Caravan Of Hope's, the data shows he only really unfurled his legs in the straight – no surprise for a big horse at tight Wolverhampton.

Newcastle, more galloping in nature, should allow him to confirm superiority in a match-up that could well decide the Northumberland Plate.

All data courtesy of Total Performance Data, whose tracking covers more than 20 courses in the UK and North America

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