2.40 Catterick: the one race you cannot afford to miss on Thursday

Watt Fences North Yorkshire Grand National Handicap Chase | 3m6f, 5yo+ | RTV

Tipster analysis

Followers of trends are immediately all at sea as Sue Smith, who has trained the last four winners, is not represented.

Last year's second Little Bruce carries the banner for the 2019 form, after being sharpened up for this with a spin over hurdles. The whole race may swing on how things play out on the front between him, Kingswell Theatre and Milansbar. Catterick is a sharp track with stiff fences and it tends to suit front-runners. That may not hold if multiple horses refuse to give way.

Instinct is that Tommy Dowson on Little Bruce will take a lead and 13-year-old Milansbar may no longer have the zip to lay up with a contested pace, giving Jack Tudor on Kingswell Theatre the lead. Little Bruce thrives in marathons, he won the discontinued Cambridgeshire National on one of his two other runs at 3m4f-plus, so Dowson will want to ensure a test and would be unlikely to offer Tudor much peace.

The most interesting of the others on form are Manwell, who has been shaping well over shorter but has plenty to prove in terms of his stamina, and Brian Boranha. The latter could well be a player.

After winning the Durham National at Sedgefield last season, he was aimed at the Scottish National due to his suitability to good ground. That same predilection means his last two runs, on soft ground, can be excused and he comes here on the same mark from which he won at Sedgefield. He has been first (subsequently disqualified) and third on his two runs at Catterick over hurdles.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

What the stats say?

Jeremiah McGrath has enjoyed two winners from three rides at Catterick in the past five seasons. He partners Pickamix.

What connections say?

Michael Scudamore, trainer of Kingswell Theatre
The weights have gone up but we have man of the moment Jack Tudor taking off a handy 7lb which helps. He didn't enjoy it up in grade at Cheltenham and this is more his level. He should enjoy the better ground.

Peter Niven, trainer of Brian Boranha
Running him on soft ground at Kelso last time didn't come off and he should like this better ground. He's come out of that fine and he stays well so hopefully he can step up on that showing.

Charlie Mann, trainer of Pickamix
He didn't run too badly despite being pulled up at Cheltenham last time considering he'd had a year off. I don't know if he'll get the trip but it will be interesting to see if he does.

Sam England, trainer of Manwell
It's his first time over this sort of trip so we're giving it a bash and if it comes off it will open up new doors for him.

Joanne Foster, trainer of Chase The Wind
There was another other option for him at Wetherby on Saturday, but there's rain forecast which wouldn't suit him so we're giving this a go. He ran well at Doncaster last time and should not have a problem with the trip.

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