Look for the young improvers in the Stewards' Cup

The five afternoons of Glorious Goodwood provide some of the best racing of the summer. The picturesque course hosts 13 Group races, featuring the Goodwood Cup and the Sussex Stakes. Below are some trends and patterns to point you in the right direction.

Don’t: Forget the front-runners

Goodwood is a course that often suits horses willing to make the pace out front. The downhill finish makes it harder for horses to come from behind, and the quicker the ground the more this is emphasised. Hold-up horses will have their troubles and the gaps don’t always appear like they do at other tracks.

Big Orange is your classic example of a horse suited by Goodwood. While he has proven he can keep rivals at bay elsewhere, Goodwood has always brought the best out of him and the six-year-old is a best-priced even-money to make it three Goodwood Cups in a row.

Do: Side with horses who can handle the undulations

Course form is invaluable. The advice may sound obvious but is often forgotten just how demanding and notoriously challenging a track Goodwood is. The undulations do not suit every horse and the round course can make or break horses over the longer distances.

From the 26 races for three-year-olds or older at 2016’s meeting, only seven winners had not placed at Goodwood or the similarly undulating tracks of Epsom, Newmarket and Leicester before. Half of the winners had won at one of these courses previously and a further six had placed at one or more.

Don’t: Follow Hannon blind because of his father’s record

Richard Hannon snr was a huge supporter of the meeting. Herridge Racing Stables is less than an hour from Goodwood and Hannon snr took aim at the five-day festival with huge success. He won the Sussex Stakes three times with Reel Buddy, Canford Cliffs and Toronado, adding two Nassau Stakes with Crespinall and Caramba. Hannon’s final Goodwood in 2013 brought with it an unbelievable eight winners, including four Group races.

The two Richard Hannons, father and son, discuss strategy with racing secretary Kevin MasonCredit: Edward Whitaker

Since taking over the Wiltshire stable, Hannon jnr has regularly spoken of his admiration for Glorious Goodwood. In the three years since succeeding his father, Hannon has had nine winners at Glorious Goodwood, which sounds impressive but he's been a bit hit and miss. In 2015 he struck up a tidy five wins, but last year he only had one winner. It’s fairly clear that taking the Hannon runners on a horse-by-horse basis is the route to take.

In the bigger races, Oh This Is Us looks to be heading to the Lennox Stakes, although the Sussex Stakes remains a possibility if the ground and field cuts up. Tigre Du Terre, an eyecatching winner at Ascot, is primed for the Vintage Stakes while Denaar will take on the Molecomb and Medahim will represent Al Shaqab in the Betfred Mile. Hannon has always sent his better maidens to try and get off the mark at the meeting, but a patchy record of 2-28 means you should ere on the side of caution. Interestingly, both winners were sent off favourite.

Do: Trust the three-year-olds in the Sussex Stakes

It is an obvious angle, with a straightforward reason as to why it occurs, but the three-year-olds are traditionally a tough nut to crack in the Sussex Stakes. Only a special horse can fight off the age allowance and topple the best of the Classic generation. Solow managed it in 2015 and Frankel in 2012. However, they only beat Belardo, Bossy Guest and Gabrial between them.

The market is favouring the older horse this year, with Ribchester odds-on in most places. The allowance is only 7lb but Churchill is more than lurking in the shadows. It is not often you get such strong candidates from each age bracket, as one tends to scare the other off, but this looks set to be a true test of the rule.

Churchill: O'Brien has been looking forward to seeing the dual Guineas winner over 1m2f for some timeCredit: Edward Whitaker

Don’t: Ignore Johnston in 2yo and 3yo handicaps

Mark Johnston sends an army of horses to Goodwood each year, but it’s important to note that these horses are carefully placed, with particular attention put on the age-restricted handicaps.

In the two nursery handicaps at last year's meeting, Johnston had six runners with a first, second and third in one and a second, fifth and sixth in the other. Picking the right horse is easier said than done, but in typically wide-open races the odds are usually enticing too.

It’s a trend that continues in the three-year-old handicaps. The 5f three-year-old handicap – the last race on the Thursday – is another race Johnston likes to target. In 2014, he finished third with Peterkin. The following year he won the race with Indescribable at 18-1, as well as training the third and seventh. Last season he claimed third in the race with Muhadathat at 25-1.

Do: Back the horses on the up in the Stewards’ Cup

You have to go back to 2010 to find the last horse to win the Stewards’ Cup who was on their way down the handicap rather than up. This has been exaggerated in the last two years with Dancing Star and Magical Memory winning as three-year-olds. Dancing Star improved from a rating of 75 to winning the prize off 102, while Magical Memory jumped from 87 to 102.

Horses fitting this profile tend to race off the lower weights for obvious reasons and often just scrape into the race. Two stick out in the entries fitting this outline. The Roger Varian-trained Ekhtiyaar is now rated 100 having started the season at 85 and will race off 8st 11lb if making the cut. The aptly named Goodwood Crusader, for one-time course master Richard Hughes, will need some help to get into the final field but has improved from a mark of just 63 up to 94.

Don’t: Get frustrated

Five days of racing at Goodwood comes with the usual ups and downs. On the round course especially you can expect plenty of hard-luck stories. Horses held up often struggle to find the doors opening in front of them and it’s easy to quickly become frustrated. Play the long game, stick to your guns and don’t become deterred.

Do: Side with the pacesetters in sprints

Epsom aside, Goodwood has one of the fastest sprint tracks in Britain. Those sprinters with their eyes bulging, forcing their way to the front love the hustle and bustle of the Goodwood sprints. Take Cover jumps out in recent years as a horse who thrives at Glorious Goodwood, with two wins in the King George Stakes, as well as a second in the same race.

Battaash and Kachy are the horses that fit this profile in this year’s entries for the King George Stakes. Battaash will have plenty of support anyhow, but Kachy could be one floating under the radar if all is well at home. It’s not a track many can come from behind over the shorter distances, with the hill only exaggerating this.

Don’t: Side with the favourite in the opener

With all the excitement of the fantastic five days getting under way, it might be easy to expect the favourite to get you off to a flyer. You’d be wrong. Since 2005 there have been two winning favourites and on both occasions these were 8-1 co-favourites. Eight of the 12 previous winners have been returned at double-figure prices and Mark Johnston has a tremendous record, winning five of these 12 runnings.