Keith Melrose with a July Cup formline that you should ignore at your peril

Last year in this slot, the focus fell on the difference between the six-furlong tracks at Ascot and Newmarket's July course. That made sense as 12 of the 14 runners in last year's July Cup had made their most recent appearance at Ascot.

This year the same figure is eight out of nine. Yet I'm not so sure that Ascot is the most relevant comparison now. The vast majority of runners were last seen in either the Commonwealth Cup or Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes. Neither race was typical and the results could be upended.

That goes most obviously for the QEII Jubilee, which was won by 80-1 shot Khaadem. More extraordinary than his SP was the ride he received. If there's a better ride in a Group 1 this year than Jamie Spencer's that day, either we're in for a real treat or you're overthinking it.