It's time for Grand National talk as Candy and The Conditional face Classic test
It's not all about Cheltenham. For while in deep midwinter the festival's four days cast a uniquely gripping spell on jumping fans, none of its 28 contests come close to rivalling the popular appeal of the Randox Health Grand National.
That, by far and away, is Britain's biggest race – and as Warwick stages its own premier prize, a few useful Aintree clues could be unearthed.
Like its title, the McCoy Contractors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase is a proper marathon, one from which the connections of The Conditional, Kimberlite Candy and Le Breuil might all hope to emerge with a legitimate fancy for the sport's £1 million showpiece.
Such aspirations are certainly not hopeless as just three years ago One For Arthur won the Classic Chase en route to Grand National glory. In 2013 Auroras Encore finished fifth before becoming the unlikely toast of Liverpool, while West Tip, Mr Frisk, Party Politics, Royal Athlete and Rough Quest won races at Warwick before achieving sporting immortality.
At Warwick, as at Aintree, jumping flaws are exposed, not least because of the line of five fences down the side of the racecourse. Land over one and the next is soon upon you. The rhythm that is required can provide a decent rehearsal for the Grand National fences. Kimberlite Candy has already passed one such rehearsal with near flying colours.
The JP McManus-owned eight-year-old did not win the Becher Chase but he beat everything except Walk In The Mill, thus setting himself up for a return visit. Crucially, though, what he has done so far may not be enough. None of last year's 40 runners raced off a BHA mark less than 142. Kimberlite Candy goes to Warwick rated 140, meaning he may have to win under Richie McLernon to form part of the green and gold team on April 4.
Le Breuil's camp have no such concerns. Last year's National Hunt Chase hero, most recently seventh in the Becher, tops the Classic Chase handicap off 148, his weight burden reduced by 7lb thanks to the booking by trainer Ben Pauling of Luca Morgan. With eight winners banked this season, Morgan is a talented young conditional. So, too, is one of his principal opponents.
The Conditional has been much improved since joining David Bridgwater, who prepared him to land a competitive handicap in October before then seeing him follow home De Rasher Counter in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury. That was sufficiently pleasing for Bridgwater to enter the novice in the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup. Assuming he is not confusing a goose for a swan, that has to be of interest.
Also of interest on this occasion will be Impulsive Star, who won the Classic Chase last year. Another back for more is Crosspark, who finished fourth in 2018 and third last year, while Mysteree will not lack for stamina, having an Eider Chase first, second and fourth to his name. He could be a popular pick, as could Petite Power, a previous participant in the Lincolnshire National, Surrey National and Highlands National.
Depending on what happens in the latest renewal of Warwick's greatest race, we could find ourselves with a genuine contender for the National that trumps them all.
Frodon takes on the starring role
Altior was in, then he was out and he stayed out, even those his trainer really wanted him back in. All of which is a shame for Kempton, but in Frodon and Bryony Frost, the track still has a fantastic duo headlining the first running of the Silviniaco Conti Chase as a Grade 2.
This week's hokey cokey-esque Altior saga has been the week's major racing story. Like the Duke and Duchess of Sussex, Nicky Henderson was criticised by some for making an important announcement in a manner outside of the traditionally accepted channels. The fact Altior avoids and Frodon contests a race backed by the trainer's bookmaker sponsor Unibet may well keep the narrative galloping.
At Cheltenham in March Frodon kept galloping in glorious fashion under Frost, who enjoyed one of her first breakthrough victories on this day two years ago when Milansbar won the Classic Chase at Warwick. Frodon's Ryanair Chase triumph makes him the one to beat, but he was noticeably below par in the Betfair Chase and needs to do better against another of the sport's most popular performers, that smashing little scrapper Top Notch.
Should Top Notch win, there will be a trip to Kempton's podium for Altior's trainer, who also has a likely candidate, Fraser Island, in the opening race, whose timely title is the Read Nicky Henderson's Unibet Blog Juvenile Hurdle.
Another Pertemps puzzler
Winning the Pertemps Final does not get you a spot in the following year's Pertemps Final. Participation comes from qualification – and last year's winner Sire Du Berlais still needs to qualify.
The Gordon Elliott-trained hurdler justified 4-1 favouritism at the festival and returned to Pertemps competition when staying on as a 20-1 shot to take ninth at Leopardstown over Christmas. He did not stay on quickly enough, for a horse needs to manage at least sixth in a qualifier to become eligible for the final.
As such, Elliott and owner JP McManus will be hoping to see Sire Du Berlais advance from that festive effort in Saturday's Warwick qualifier.
Interestingly, Elliott also saddles It's All Guesswork, who caught many an eye in one of last year's Pertemps feeder races but needs to nudge up the official ratings if he is to make it into the final. For him, much more than a top six spot is required.
Elliott chasing Moore riches
Gordon Elliott has dominated the Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (2.10) at Fairyhouse of late and he launches a three-pronged attack on the €100,000 contest in an attempt to land the lucrative pot for the fourth year on the trot.
Ball D'Arc (2017), Doctor Phoenix (2018) and Duca De Thaix (2019) have helped Elliott make the race his own in recent years and his last two winners are back for more along with Avenir D'Une Vie who was an impressive course winner on his first start for the stable in November.
The presence of the Grade 1-winning Ornua and 2017 Grand Annual winner Rock The World means it is a hot renewal of the prestigious event.
Should Elliott continue his winning streak in the race, it would increase his lead in the Irish trainers’ championship. He currently leads Willie Mullins by €2,748,390 to €2,408,273 as he seeks to win the title for the first time.
Smooth run-up for the team at Warwick
Not even a proper soaking on Thursday evening has prevented Warwick clerk of the course Jane Hedley from enjoying an unusually relaxed build-up to the biggest afternoon in the track's calendar.
Nine millimetres of rain had left the ground soft on both the chase and hurdle tracks as darkness fell on Friday.
"We're normally battling with frost sheets at this stage but this time we've had a nice run-up," said Hedley.
"The ground could dry out a little, and we might have some good to soft on the chase course, but in the main it will just be tacky. We're expecting an overcast and breezy day."
Conditions at Kempton were reported on Friday as good to soft, soft in places.
Clerk of the course Barney Clifford said: "It's clearly a bit dead but in March I think we might be calling this good ground. Saturday should be dry and with sunshine."
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