Is Pinatubo a less likely June Guineas winner than May Guineas winner?

Despite it being displaced by a month, this is a running of the 2,000 Guineas that poses a familiar question. Should the two-year-old form be allowed to dominate the conversation, or do considerations of what has happened in the months behind closed doors potentially upset that order?

First of all, it needs to be asked to what extent the month's delay might upset the equilibrium. Is Pinatubo a less likely winner of a June Guineas than a May Guineas? The answer is surely yes to some extent. He started racing in May as a two-year-old and was making his third start when winning the Chesham at Royal Ascot. He is not especially big and is not really bred to stay much beyond a mile.

At the same time his two-year-old form is irresistible. Six wins from six runs, the most impressive a nine-length demolition in the National Stakes. The scales would have to have swung quite some way to suggest he is not the likeliest winner. But asking for a bet at 5-6, with all the uncertainty that surrounds it, does not inspire. Pinatubo is likely to be more Too Darn Hot than Frankel, but he could well follow the latter in the fact, if not the manner, of winning the first Classic of the season.