'If the rain arrives Eldorado Allen might usurp Fusil Raffles as favourite'

1.40 Cheltenham
The Horse's Mouth Podcast Novices Chase (Grade 2) | 2m | 4yo+ | ITV/RTV

The ground could play a crucial role in the outcome of this fascinating novice chase.

Cheltenham, set in a bowl surrounded by hills, is famous for having its own microclimate and weather forecasters can't agree on how much rain might fall at Prestbury Park. Depending on which one you believe, there could be anywhere between seven and ten millimetres.

If they get the conservative estimate, conditions might not be much worse than good to soft but if they get the full dousing it could easily be riding testing by the time they jump off here.

Judged on Racing Post Ratings in Britain, Fusil Raffles's highest figure on ground with good in the going description is 15lb higher than his best on soft conditions and he has been kept away from testing ground for the majority of his career since joining Nicky Henderson.

In contrast, his main rival Eldorado Allen has had all bar one of his eight career starts on soft or heavy ground and his highest RPR was achieved on soft going at Sandown in January.

His trainer Colin Tizzard had a quiet October, but he often has his team firing on all cylinders in November and a winner at Chepstow on Monday and a double at Exeter on Wednesday signalled the stable is about to hit top form. Since 2008, Tizzard has saddled more winners this month (119) than he has in any other of the year and he has an 18 per cent strike-rate in chases at the November meeting at Cheltenham since 2013 (+£3.60 to £1 level stakes).

If the rain arrives there is a chance Eldorado Allen might usurp Fusil Raffles as favourite.

One final note regards chasing debutant Quel Destin. Cheltenham is a hard place to win on debut over fences and, since the start of 2016, only four horses have achieved the feat. That gives you an idea of the task he faces, especially against more experienced rivals.

Graeme Rodway, tipster

What they say

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Fusil Raffles
He's good. I'm very happy with him. He's been around Cheltenham before and enjoyed it. I am keen to step him up to two and a half miles, but the two-miler looked marginally easier.

Colin Tizzard, trainer of Eldorado Allen
When he came back this year I hardly recognised him as he's developed into a huge, strong horse, and he was working on one of our gallops and beating everything without breaking sweat. He looked really impressive when he won at Newton Abbot this month. He jumped like a stag and was foot-perfect all the way apart from missing the last.

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Gumball
He's our best two-mile novice chaser by a long streak and you'd like to think he'll end up in the Arkle. We were really happy with his win at Uttoxeter last time. He jumped extremely well and learned a lot from his first run to win easily. This has been his target since.

Richard Newland, trainer of Le Patriote
He was a smart winner at Market Rasen last time out. He looks to be progressing all the time and jumped well last time.

Harry Cobden, rider of Quel Destin
He had a nice run on the Flat the other day and won well, and he's been going well over fences at home. He's been a good servant already and we expect him to run a nice race.

Henry de Bromhead, trainer of Zarkareva
We've been delighted with her this season. She seems to be progressing all the time and we felt it could be worth taking a chance on running her here so hopefully she can run well.

Reporting by David Milnes

Place bets with seven bookmakers without leaving the free Racing Post app. Same prices, same offers, live video. Every race, every day. Search 'Racing Post App' to download for free