How vulnerable is Alcohol Free in the bet365 Mile as she makes her reappearance?

Friday: 3.00 Sandown
bet365 Mile (Group 2) | 1m | 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

Punters should always strive to scrutinise odds-on favourites and there are reasons to oppose Alcohol Free in the bet365 Mile.

Strictly on the formbook, Alcohol Free undoubtedly merits her skimpy price after a glittering three-year-old campaign in which top-level victories in the Coronation Stakes and Sussex Stakes were earned.

She is also the second highest-rated horse in the last decade to contest the Mile. Palace Pier was the only superior animal to run in that timeframe and he sauntered home by eight lengths last season. So, what are the downsides?

This is her comeback and Andrew Balding has likely left something to work on ahead of plausible loftier targets like the Lockinge Stakes and Queen Anne Stakes.

While Alcohol Free handles the quick conditions on offer at Sandown, she is superior on testing ground. Balding’s eight per cent strike-rate when enlisting a first-time hood, which Alcohol Free sports, is also half his overall 16 per cent success rate.

A more inconspicuous angle to consider is the record of her sire No Nay Never with older horses. A precocious sprinter who retired at three, No Nay Never excels with juveniles and the strike-rate of his progeny and their impact value nosedives with age.

An impact value either side of 1.00 means horses are performing above or below market expectations. No Nay Never strikes at 17 per cent with two-year-olds for an impact value of 1.74, 11 per cent with three-year-olds for an impact value of 1.23 and eight per cent with four-year-olds for an impact value of 0.94.

There are no guarantees Alcohol Free will replicate last season’s form and an underperformance can be exploited by Sunray Major.

This half-brother to Kingman remains deeply unexposed after only five runs in a stop-start career and had excuses for his short-priced Balmoral defeat in October. John and Thady Gosden’s decision to jeopardise his handicap mark of 102 is fascinating.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

Excited Hornby hoping for perfect reunion

Rob Hornby is relishing the chance to partner Alcohol Free for only the second time in the absence of her regular jockey Oisin Murphy.

The four-year-old will make her seasonal reappearance after an impressive campaign last year, which included successes in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes and the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.

"These opportunities come back around and I know her quite well given my association with the yard," said Hornby, who rode her at Salisbury in 2020. "I've ridden her out quite often since February.

"It's really exciting. Me and Oisin are very close as we came up at the same time doing our apprenticeships and he's given me some good advice about her running style. She's quirky. She'll wear a hood this time and I'll be focused on keeping a lid on her before the race.

"She had a hell of a year and the exciting part is she's done so well physically over the winter. We'll find out tomorrow how fully she's developed. Hopefully she can emulate what she achieved last year."

Alcohol Free scores her second Group 1 winCredit: Edward Whitaker

Alcohol Free is owned by Jeff Smith, who added: "She was brilliant last season. Her Sussex win was incredible and she's the real deal. I'll be at Sandown and I wouldn't miss it. This looks like a great starting point without a penalty and the track should suit her.

"She's won three Group 1s so she doesn't need to do too much more. The mile programme is there for all to see but a lot will depend on tomorrow. We haven't got any firm plans for her."

What they say

John Gosden joint-trainer Sunray Major
We thought we'd bring him back in a nice race on nice ground rather than going for a handicap. He's been pleasing us in his preparation, but it looks a strong race with a Group 1 winner in there.

David O'Meara, trainer of Rhoscolyn
He's also declared for Haydock on Saturday. He ran well at Thirsk when third this month and he should improve for the run. He was giving 4lb to the winner Mutasaabeq. We were really pleased with him last year.

Charlie Hills, trainer of Mutasaabeq
We've been pleased with him since his last run, which helped get his confidence back. The trip, track and ground will be fine for him, but there are some tough horses in there, especially Alcohol Free.
Reporting by Jonathan Harding

Friday's race previews

1.50 Sandown: All-weather form not to be dismissed and neither should Botti runner

2.25 Sandown: Can Mostahdaf continue upward curve in puzzling Gordon Richards Stakes?

2.40 Perth: 'He looks overpriced to end a strong season for his yard on a high'

3.35 Sandown: Is Charlie Appleby about to unleash another Adayar in the Classic Trial?

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