High numbers could hold sway in Victoria Cup puzzle if forecast rain arrives

3.40 Ascot
tote+ Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) | 7f | 4yo+ | ITV4/Sky

Twenty-nine runners ranging from proven Listed performers to low-grade all-weather handicappers, the potential for multiple groups, bookmakers offering 8-1 the field and some lavish each-way terms. What is not to love about the Victoria Cup?

Racing's version of a lockdown 10,000-piece ocean scenery jigsaw takes centre stage on the straight course at Ascot. So where is the angle? Well, there are plenty and perhaps the draw holds the most importance.

Recent trends indicate you want to be looking high. The general rule of thumb is to pinpoint where the pace is, but since 2013 only four horses have finished in the first four from single-figure stalls. That's pretty conclusive evidence that being stuck out on the wing on the far side has proved less than ideal.

One of those was Kaeso, who took third after breaking from stall four in 2019 but tracked right across towards the stands' rail under Hollie Doyle. To do that and win, you need to be much the best.

He returns for another crack at this prize and will be a much bigger price than two years ago, but has again been drawn low in stall six. Others who will look to defy statistics are Fox Champion (stall two) and Keyser Soze (one), both of whom figure towards the top of the market after creditable recent efforts.

Like Kaeso, the Jamie Osborne-trained Raising Sand has competed in this race before, twice in fact, finishing fourth in 2019 and 16th in 2018. The nine-year-old is a course specialist and connections will have their fingers crossed the forecast heavy downpours hit Ascot. The softer the better for him.

I'm not convinced the same can be said for Spring Mile runner-up Acquitted, despite the fact he recorded a novice victory on heavy ground. His sole Ascot start on soft ground resulted in a 99-length beating in the Golden Gates Handicap last year, although his defeat was down to the 1m2f trip more than anything.

The lightly raced son of 2,000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder has always been held in the highest regard by Hugo Palmer, and a gelding operation may have been the making of him. Further progress from his seasonal reappearance gives him a live chance.

Similar claims apply to topweight Motakhayyel after his second at Thirsk, although no horse has ever carried more than 9st 8lb to victory in this race. Better is expected from course scorers River Nymph, Escobar and Chiefofchiefs – all of whom appear handicapped to compete.

Sir Mark Prescott's 12 per cent Ascot strike-rate (15-218) tempers enthusiasm, but four-year-old gelding Sunset Breeze is arguably the most interesting runner in the race from a handicapping perspective.

A drastic improver on all-weather and turf last season with course-and-distance form to his name courtesy of a runner-up effort behind subsequent winner Double Or Bubble, Sunset Breeze might have an edge off a mark of 91 and Prescott doesn't often start his horses off in this kind of company. As ever, watch the market.
Race analysis by Tom Collins

Can Ropey repeat the dose?

Eight years after George Margarson, Tom Queally and owner John Guest landed this race with Excellent Guest, the trio are back to try to repeat the feat with Ropey Guest.

The four-year-old, who has been gelded since last season, has gained a reputation for being the nearly horse during his two seasons racing, being placed numerous times at Group level.

Newmarket trainer Margarson has worked out that his latest candidate is a dish best caught fresh, so decided against giving him a pipe-opener for this last month.

He said: “Ropey Guest has the same profile as Excellent Guest. As he’s gone well fresh the last two seasons it has always been the plan to come here first.

"He ran very well to be fourth in the Jersey Stakes first time up last year when the ground was on the easy side, so hopefully he can go close.

"When he ran in the Horris Hill as a juvenile it was run in a swamp at Newmarket and he handled it well, so any further rain won’t be a bother.”

What they say

Richard Hills, assistant racing manager to Shadwell Estate, owners of Motakhayyel
He’s top-rated in the race with a big weight, which is always tough in these races, but he’s running at a track he loves. He ran a great race first time back at Thirsk and will enjoy the ground.

Jamie Osborne, trainer of Raising Sand
It's hard to say he's improving at the age of nine, but if ever there was a case of having a 7lb claimer riding him this is it. He's done plenty of work and the softer the better.

Philip Robinson, assistant racing manager to Sheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum, owner of Symbolize
He ran into a decent filly of Chris Wall’s at Newmarket first time and should like the track. He’s versatile as regards ground.

Charlie Fellowes, trainer of Chiefofchiefs
He ran a really good comeback in a race working out very well at Doncaster and goes on any ground, so any further rain won’t bother him. He loves Ascot and I think Jamie Spencer is made for him, so I think he could run a big race.

Alastair Donald, racing manager to King Power Racing, owners of Fox Champion
It was a good first run at Haydock after he had been gelded and he was slightly unlucky as he was a bit short of room when it mattered. You need everything to go right in these big handicaps, but it looks like he's returning to form.

David Barron, trainer of On A Session
From his previous form it seems as though he doesn't mind cut in the ground. He ran very well last week and seems in very good form, so let's go and have a tilt at them.

Hugo Palmer, trainer of Acquitted
We’re trying a new trip with him. It was bottomless ground when he won at Newbury last year and it may well be the same tomorrow come post time. I always thought he would get ten furlongs but he hasn’t appeared to and he’d have beaten Palace Pier at Newcastle over seven last year, although we were getting a lot of weight. The draw is always an imponderable so hopefully stall 20 on soft ground is in his favour.

Sir Mark Prescott, trainer of Sunset Breeze
We last won it around 50 years ago with Heave To so you could say we are overdue another. Sunset Breeze should handle the soft ground as he’s by Pivotal, but I don’t know about his draw out on the wing coming from 29 of 29 but hopefully he can overcome it.

James Tate, trainer of Walhaan
He’s new to the stable and we’re still finding out about him but he’s working nicely although theses races are a lottery. Thankfully our jockey [Hayley Turner] knows how to ride the straight course at Ascot.

Richard Spencer, trainer of Keyser Soze
He’s 2lb higher for winning over a mile there last time and we expect the soft ground to offset the drop back in trip. I don’t know if his draw on the wing in stall one is any advantage but we’ll see how it pans out.

Heather Main, trainer of Marshal Dan
The ground was a bit too quick for him at Haydock last time but this surface should be more his bag. He’s drawn low in three which could be good or bad.

Roger Varian, trainer of Jumaira Bay
He’s working well and is well weighted in a race we like so hopefully he can run a nice race. He’s drawn low and the low numbers can have an advantage when it’s really soft.
Reporting by David Milnes

Read more Saturday previews:

2.15 Lingfield: 'gorgeous filly' Ocean Road to test Oaks mettle for Hugo Palmer

2.30 Ascot: 'He's in great shape' – Crisford bullish about Without A Fight for Buckhounds

2.50 Lingfield: is there a genuine Epsom contender ready to pounce in the Derby Trial?

3.10 Haydock: is Aintree faller Copperless going to bounce back in the Swinton Hurdle?

3.25 Lingfield: Chris Wall worried rain could burst Double Or Bubble's chances of a four-timer

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