'He's had his most prolific month for years' - Paul Kealy selects a trainer to follow in tricky handicap hurdle

A tricky little handicap hurdle as plenty of the runners have something to prove, either at the trip or in terms of recent runs.

Bluffmeifyoucan bounced back to form for Sue Gardner with a 16-1 second over 2m5½f at Fontwell just 11 days ago and is favoured in the market this time, although he is hardly known for his consistency. Other than his Exeter success last season, that's only the second time in nine starts he has finished within 13 lengths of the winner, and he was pulled up on his only try at three miles, albeit at a higher level than this.

Most interesting given the form of the yard is Hatos, whose trainer Anthony Honeyball had his most prolific month for a few years in February (ten winners) and is already off the mark in March.

Hatos had only two runs over hurdles last season, winning the first of them, but he hasn't taken to chasing in three outings this season, falling when last seen. He now runs in his first handicap in this sphere, though, with his mark having been reduced by 6lb for running in another over fences.

Island Run and Oscars Moonshine, representing Philip Hobbs and Paul Nicholls, are two course winners over shorter, and the latter has won at 2m7f.

Oscars Moonshine is now 1lb lower than for the last of his hat-trick wins in October 2020, but rain on watered ground will not be in his favour.

Island Run shaped well in two runs over three miles before the turn of the year, and he'd have been closer last time but for a mistake at the last, albeit he was favourite.

Sermando has another crack at three miles having not always looked like getting home. However, at Southwell last season he was beaten only by two horses who turned out to be much better than his grade (he was giving weight too), so he may have more to offer.
Race analysis by Paul Kealy                                                        

What they say

Nigel Hawke, trainer of Ballymagroarty Boy
He ran a nice race the other day on quicker ground and the softer it is, the better for him. His form has been very solid this season and he's done nothing wrong apart from not winning a race. I'm hopeful.

David Pipe, trainer of Jet Smart
He ran well first time out in a hot maiden at Ascot. He's been a little disappointing since and we hope the visor perks him up a bit.

Anthony Honeyball, trainer of Hatos
We've been slightly on the back foot with him, he won a maiden hurdle last season and we thought we'd have a cracking go at chasing, but we've never quite got it right. He had a soft fall last time and we need to see him perform so we're going back to hurdles, stepping him up to three miles on the current ground and putting blinkers on to sharpen him up. We've made a few changes and we hope he'll be in the shake-up.

Philip Hobbs: "I hope he has a strong each-way chance"Credit: Edward Whitaker

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Island Run
I'm anticipating the ground will be good by tomorrow, which will be fine. He stays three miles well and the race should suit him so I hope he has a strong each-way chance.

Sue Gardner, trainer of Bluffmeifyoucan
I was very pleased with him at Fontwell and it was only greenness that did for him there, but he hasn't always put two races together. I hope the longer distance will help him, but he is a bit of an enigma.
Reporting by David Carr

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