Front-runners boast an edge in competitive Haydock handicap

2.50 Haydock
Casumo Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap | 7f | 4yo+ | ITV/RTV

In tight-knit handicaps like this you need to find an edge. That could be the draw given this race is run around a bend, but the sample size over this trip is too small to form a solid and worthwhile opinion, especially when there isn't much in the stats.

However, the same cannot be said for racing style. Since 2010 horses who have led Haydock contests at this distance have an eyecatching 20 per cent strike-rate (7-35, a £1 level-stakes profit of -£9.85).

By contrast the 12 per cent success rate for prominent racers (13-106, -£27.61) and nine per cent for hold-up performers (14-153, -£34.75) are far less appealing.

The obvious forward-racers are Gobi Sunset, Admirality and Marshal Dan, who will look to get across from stalls eight, nine and 12 respectively. There isn't an overly long run until the turn, so their riders will need to be on high alert.

All three have solid form chances, especially Marshal Dan, who won over this course and distance in September last year and posted a joint career-best effort when second in the Silver Arrow at Musselburgh on his reappearance this month.

If they don't get across and instead are forced to suffer a wide trip around the bend, the cards might fall right for Fox Champion, who often races just behind the leaders and has the plum draw in stall one on his first outing for trainer Ralph Beckett.

The topweight has no recent form to his name after a disappointing four-year-old campaign but was good enough to land the German 2,000 Guineas and finish third in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat in 2019, so is worthy of a second look if the yard move has revitalised him.

Never forget the unexposed four-year-olds in this kind of event. Dreamloper and Persuasion head that shortlist and quick sectionals would suit both given their tendency to race keenly. If they drift too far back in the pack, the leeway may prove tough to overcome.
Race analysis by Tom Collins

What they say

Alastair Donald, spokesman for King Power Racing, owners of Fox Champion
Last year he was hard to place but he’s come down the handicap and has been gelded. He’s also had a change of scenery and hopefully he can reap the benefit.

Charlie Hills, trainer of Persuasion and Dulas
We’ve been really pleased with Persuasion at home and he looks to have thrived over the winter. This looks the right spot for him with a view to something like the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. Dulas is also ready to start back and is off a low weight, so he's not without a chance.

Roger Fell, trainer of Admirality
He kept hitting the crossbar last year but is in really good form at home and we're hoping he can go one better. We have a top jockey on board in David Egan, so there’s plenty to like.

Ed Walker, trainer of Dreamloper
She’s a lovely filly who picked up an injury after she won at Ascot last September. She’s been working nicely and we're very hopeful. She’s quite exuberant, so we’re starting her off at seven furlongs with a view to going up to a mile later.

Heather Main, trainer of Marshal Dan
He’s a consistent horse who loves his job and is raring to go after his comeback second at Musselburgh. If it had been softer ground there he would have been hard to beat, so we’ll see how he goes on the quicker ground here.
Reporting by David Milnes

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