Experienced John Constable may have found winning chance at Stratford

4.30 StratfordLow6 Cheltenham Festival Preview Handicap Hurdle | 2m½f | 4yo+ | RTV

This is a wide open contest but it is not difficult to find the best-handicapped horse in the race.

John Constable has dropped to a mark of just 118 and is thrown in on his best form. He won the 2017 Swinton Hurdle at Haydock off a rating of 134 and was successful off as high as 150 when landing a Listed handicap hurdle at Market Rasen later that summer.

The problem is we haven’t seen him at anywhere near his best level for more than a year, with the last sign of promise coming when third in the 2019 Swinton Hurdle at Haydock.

The ground could also be an issue. The majority of his best form has come on better going than he will encounter here, although it’s worth noting he did finish sixth in the 2017 International Hurdle at Cheltenham on soft and also wasn’t disgraced when seventh over that same course and distance in December off a mark of 130. He races off 12lb lower today.

For those who don’t want to take a chance on John Constable bouncing back and prefer recent form, Rootless Tree, Karakoram and Le Cameleon are the three to concentrate on.

Karakoram is partnered by Ben Jones, who has been one of the conditional finds of the season and is fantastic value for his 3lb claim. Jones was on board when Karakoram won at Ludlow in October on good ground but his mount seems equally effective on soft conditions.

If it gets really testing, that will play into the hands of the aforementioned Rootless Tree and Le Cameleon, who have both enjoyed success on heavy ground in recent outings and will appreciate any further rain.

Rootless Tree attracted plenty of morning money before disappointing in fifth at Leicester last time, so it will be interesting to see if the support arrives again. It might be worth giving him another chance if the market speaks in his favour.

What the stats say

Tom George has had three winners from his last eight runners and is represented by Faro De Kerser here.

Suggestion has a 35 per cent strike-rate when running over this distance. He represents trainer Philip Kirby.

What they say

Victor Dartnell, trainer of River Bray
He's in great order and hopefully it won't be that soft for him. He gave himself no chance last time with the start but, considering that, he did run very well. I'm looking forward to the race and think he could run quite well.

Amy Murphy, trainer of Esprit De Baileys
He's had a long time off so he's going to come on for the outing. He doesn't want the ground to be too soft but I think it should be okay. We'll take a chance and we're looking at building towards a spring and summer campaign for him.

Tom George, trainer of Faro De Kerser
He's in good form. He's at a bit of a disadvantage as he's got to go into a handicap even though he's reasonably inexperienced. He's still learning but hopefully he's got a good future and can run nicely.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Rootless Tree
He's in good order and we're looking forward to running him. He's an improving, young horse and I'd like to think that he can run really well in this race.

Grace Harris, trainer of Karakoram
He's been really consistent this season but he's going up in grade for this race. He's got a light weight and he's going the right way, so we'll just have to see how he handles it.

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