Essential tipster analysis for the feature Listed Mares' Chase at Leicester

2.15 Leicester
Charnwood Forest Mares Chase (Listed) | 2m, 5yo+ mares | RTV

Tipster analysis

The Racing Post Analysis of this race's running last year – its first over a new distance of two miles – called it "a contender for weakest Listed event (Flat or jumps) ever run on these shores".

Without delving too deep into the archives, it is fair to say that a Listed race in which the winner runs to an RPR of 114 is not exactly living up to its billing.

More promisingly, three of the six mares declared this year boast BHA ratings of 130 or higher. Likely favourite is The Bay Birch, who improved again in the autumn and, duly rated in the high-140s, has been pushed into big handicaps. Her failure to win at this level at Market Rasen in November can be put down to stamina over 3m in extremely testing ground. She should handle this notably stiff 2m, being a comfortable traveller around 2m4f.

Leading challenges come from Litterale Ci and Northern Beau. The first-named is rated 140, the rating from which she was third over hurdles when last seen in November. Before that she won a novice chase at Exeter in which her relative fitness probably played its part. She is a Flat bred so will not lack for speed, but this will test her jumping more.

Northern Beau won at Cheltenham last time, although that was only off 125 and she needs to stay on the progressive path. It is not out of the question, as she was going the right way in the spring and summer.

Should any of the other three win, we will again be calling this a weak race for the grade.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

What the stats say?

Harry Fry, trainer of Litterale Ci, has enjoyed four winners from eight runners under both codes at Leicester.

What connections say?

Barry Brennan, trainer of Hope's Wishes
She finished second in the race last year although that was on good to firm ground and it's more competitive this time. She's well named for this assignment as she has plenty to find.

Harry Fry, trainer of Litterale Ci
She won well over fences at Exeter the time before last and we ran her back over hurdles last time as the race was run in memory of my landlord and we were keen to win it. We'll keep an eye on the forecast as they've called an inspection and she doesn't want it too soft.

Harry Fry: runs Litterale Ci, a winner over fences at Exeter on her penultimate startCredit: Edward Whitaker( racingpost.com/photos)

Lucy Wadham, trainer of Little Light
She won well over course and distance over Christmas and the plan is very much to try and get some black type.

Michael Scudamore, trainer of Northern Beau
Black type is always the aim with these mares and this looks a natural step after her career best at Cheltenham last time. She has a bit to find on ratings but has won around Leicester and if she can be placed that would be brilliant.

Matt Sheppard, trainer of The Bay Birch
She only cost €9,000 so owes us nothing and is top-rated on her form over two and a half miles. I would have been concerned about the step back in trip were it not at Leicester, which is a stiff track. She goes there with a good shout.

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