Essential tipster analysis and trainer quotes for competitive Ascot hurdle

2.25 Ascot
Matchbook Holloway's Handicap Hurdle | 2m3½f, 4yo+ | ITV4/Sky

Tipster analysis

Ballymoy returns to hurdles in an event he won last year and races off a 2lb higher mark than when successful on that occasion.

The ground will be a good bit softer than it was that day, but Ballymoy has won on heavy and a reproduction of the form might be good enough.

Plenty has to be taken on trust though as he was tailed off when last seen over hurdles in Grade 2 company at Fontwell in February and has looked lacklustre over fences this season. His form has regressed in three odds-on defeats and that's enough to put me off him.

Song For Someone is going the other way and looks firmly on the upgrade after recording back-to-back career-best efforts. The form of his third at Sandown last month was franked when the runner-up Protektorat won a Listed hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year's Day.

The extra three and a half furlongs should bring improvement from Song For Someone, who stormed home when scoring over 2m1½f at Fontwell in November, and he appears to get on well with conditional rider James Nixon. The pair have teamed up for form figures of 1113 and that includes four of Song For Someone's five highest Racing Post Ratings.

Jolly's Cracked It's two highest RPRs have been achieved at Ascot and he is 7lb better at this track than anywhere else, according to those figures. However, he has disappointed on his last two visits and needs wind surgery to have had a positive effect. This distance also appears to stretch him and his best efforts have come over four furlongs shorter.
Graeme Rodway

What the stats say

Four of the hottest trainers contest this race, with Nicky Henderson (35 per cent), Olly Murphy (35 per cent), Paul Nicholls (33 per cent), and Harry Fry (30 per cent) all in fine form over the last fortnight.

Ballymoy is 2lb higher than his winning mark in this contest last year. That is his only career run at Ascot, and he is two from three on heavy ground.

No horse older than six has won this contest in the last eight runnings.

What the trainers say

Tom Symonds, trainer of Song For Someone
He had the option of Haydock as well, but I think this track suits him better and we can claim off him. He's still only a five-year-old, so the 5lb that James [Nixon] takes off will help. I was very happy with him at Sandown, the horse in front of him subsequently did well at Cheltenham. It's his first time over two miles three furlongs, but he should stay that far. I'd be hopeful rather than confident.

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Soul Emotion
I think he's capable of running a good race. We were worried about him last season after he had a bit of a collapse at Ascot, but he seems to have come back very well and his last run was very good.

Harry Derham, assistant to Paul Nicholls, trainer of Pic D'Orhy
He's been absolutely fine since Auteuil, it was slightly frustrating because he hadn't gone far enough to know how he was going to run. He's a lovely horse and we're sort of filling a year in the sense that he'll be a chaser for next season. We're looking forward to running him.

Evan Williams, trainer of Bold Plan
Obviously he's gone up in the handicap, but he did it very well last time. If he can handle the hike in the weights then he's definitely got a chance. He's coped well with these conditions in the past, he ran very well on exceptionally deep ground at Uttoxeter in a novice handicap last year, albeit on a lower mark, but he should handle the ground.

Harry Fry, trainer of Jolly’s Cracked It
He's done most of his winning throughout his career at Ascot. He's not getting any younger, but he's dropped below his last winning mark, so hopefully he can be competitive on his favourite track and I think he'll cope with the ground. We've cauterised his palate, so hopefully that will have the desired effect.

Neil King, trainer of The Knot Is Tied
We're in good form. We found a couple of issues with him after his last run and he's had the wind op. Hopefully, we're going there with a chance, he's a nice horse.
Reporting by Tommy Churchyard

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