Can veteran Court Dreaming win competitive staying handicap for a third time - or will a new name land the spoils?

We could be set for typical jumping conditions at Carlisle with plenty of rain forecast overnight. That will suit Guetapan Collonges, who has had 12 of his 15 starts on good to soft or worse, winning six of them.

JP McManus's seven-year-old has been dropped 3lb since last seen, and he has won off the back of a break, including on his seasonal reappearance last November.

Lucinda Russell has had seven winners in the last fortnight and she runs Your Own Story, who has been dropped 1lb since finishing sixth in the Scottish National.

This is more his grade with a record of 242212 in Class 3 chases, and he won on his only previous start at Carlisle.

Morning Spirit is another course winner, and his trainer Jonjo O'Neill is a real track specialist.

O'Neill previously trained in Penrith before moving to Jackdaws Castle, and he's kept his affinity for Cumbria at this venue with a 33 per cent strike-rate (+32.56 to a £1 level stake) with his chasers in the last five seasons. That success has included two wins in the last four runnings of this event, and Morning Spirit is back down to a winning mark.

One horse seeing a fence for the first time in public is The Kniphand. He was progressive over hurdles last season and his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies wants to make use of a mark of 121 in handicaps straight away.

Twiston-Davies is renowned for firing in the autumn, but this is the best October he has had yet with a strike-rate of 42 per cent.
Race analysis by James Hill

Going update

The going is good to soft, soft in places on the chase course, and soft, heavy in places on the hurdles track. The course passed a 9am inspection on raceday.

What they say

Charlie Longsdon, trainer of Guetapan Collonges
He ran a couple of nice races last season as he was fourth in the Classic Chase and the Midlands National. He'll have some bigger targets further on in the season and he'll improve for the run, but this is a good starting point.

Stuart Edmunds, trainer of Mexico
We're hoping they get the deluge of rain that they're forecast. If it comes up soft he's schooled well and he's taken to jumping fences very well at home so we'd be hopeful.

Lucinda Russell, trainer of Your Own Story
He was brilliant last year. He was still a novice and I thought he coped really well with everything. He's definitely a stayer and for the first circuit I think he'll be wondering how he can keep up, but as the Carlisle hill goes up he should be staying on. We'll have a look at some of the staying handicap chases with him for the rest of the season but this is quite a nice starting point.

Nick Alexander, trainer of Ned Tanner
We're very happy with him, but we'd expect him to improve for it. He'll need the rain to arrive though, otherwise he won't run.

Nicky Richards, trainer of Court Dreaming
He seems in grand fettle. He seems to save his best for Carlisle – he's won this race two out of the last three years – so I hope he turns up and runs a very good race.

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