Can Heltenham enhance Dan Skelton's healthy Southwell statistics?

Tuesday: 12.35 Southwell
Best Odds Guaranteed At Vickers.Bet Handicap Chase | 2m4½f | 4yo + | Sky

Dan Skelton is a top-class trainer but his horses are often over-bet and backing them all blindly to £1 stakes this season would have yielded a significant £90.07 loss.

However, supporting his handicap chasers at Southwell over the past year has proved a profitable strategy. Skelton strikes at 40 per cent in such races and adopting the same staking plan would have yielded a £10.40 profit.

Heltenham attempts to enhance that statistic and looks a viable alternative to early favourite Sublime Heights, whose Plumpton victory on good ground last month came from nowhere.

There was plenty to like about Heltenham's reappearance at Stratford in October when he claimed the runner-up position behind a well-treated rival, and that was his first start after wind surgery.

Plenty of rain is forecast to hit Southwell and that will help this soft-ground bumper winner, who runs off the same rating.

Something about the Nottinghamshire track sparks Do It For Thy Sen into life and he is three from three over course and distance, although he returns after 182 days off the track and his record when fresh leaves a little to be desired.

Twotwothree is worth a second look at a price on his comeback and stable debut for Sam Allwood. The nine-year-old has multiple pieces of winning form after lengthy absences and the handicapper has given him a chance off a reduced mark.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders

What they say

Toby Lawes, trainer of Sublime Heights
He’s doing very well and I’m happy with him. He got us back together a little bit at Plumpton with the help of cheekpieces and hopefully they’ll have the same effect again. He’s been in very good form, he’s come out of it well and it’s a nice race to go for.

Alex Hales, trainer of Maria Magdalena
She ran well first time out over fences at Hereford. My only query would be about how much rain we’ll get as she doesn’t want it too soft. She’s essentially a summer mare and I suspect it might be her last run [this year], so I just want to get some more experience into her before her winter break.

Sam Allwood, trainer of Twotwothree
We trained him as a three-year-old and we won a point with him before selling him. We know him quite well and it’s nice to have him back. He’s had the ideal preparation. The yard has been quiet for a few weeks, so it’s nice to get going again.

Gary Hanmer, trainer of Steel Wave
We would’ve preferred it over three miles, but there was nothing coming up and I didn’t want to take a chance on waiting for the ground to change, so I thought it made sense to go on this better ground over the distance. He seems in good form and he ran a nice race at Kempton, but I was disappointed he didn’t back it up at Stratford. We had an issue because the horse box broke down on the way and we had to swap them, so we had to write that off due to transit problems.
Race reporting by Liam Headd

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