Can Classic-placed Caernarfon cash in on a significant drop in class at Salisbury?

The Classic generation have dominated this race in the last ten years. Seven runnings since 2013 have gone to three-year-olds and that is from a total of 45 horses of that age who ran.

It’s therefore no surprise the two overnight market leaders are both three-year-olds, but will it be the proven form horse, Caernarfon, or the promising Running Lion who wins out?

Caernarfon brings Classic form to the table as she finished in the frame in both the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket and the Oaks at Epsom, but she remains without a win this season.

She has found a home over this trip on her last two outings and improved on her sixth in the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot with a close fifth in the Nassau at Goodwood two weeks ago. This is evidently a big drop in class and she sets a good standard, but she also looks exposed.

Running Lion was last seen in a Classic herself, but a tailed-off last behind Blue Rose Cen in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly is not an accurate reflection of her ability and she is better judged on her previous form as she went into that race having won four times on the spin.

She thrashed subsequent Lillie Langtry winner Sumo Sam by four and a half lengths in the Pretty Polly at Newmarket before her Chantilly disappointment and that gives her a chance.

Ameynah looks the best of the older horses. She represents Roger Varian, who has a 27 per cent strike-rate at this track in recent seasons and saddled Tazffin to finish third in 2015.
Analysis by Graeme Rodway

What they say

David Egan, rider of Ameynah
I think she's come on for her first run of the season at Ascot and hopefully will have a nice trip around from a wide draw. She was staying on over a stiff mile at Ascot and I’m hopeful she’ll get the trip.

Harry Eustace, trainer of Makeinmedoit
She disappointed at Ayr on her first start of the season although that race turned out to be hot as it was won by Al Husn. She loves fast ground and this will be the first chance she has to run on a decent surface for a while. She’s not got a great draw but hopefully she can grab some black type.

Jane Chapple Hyam, trainer of Queen Of The Skies
She’s been running well of late, has a good draw and hopefully can bag some black type.

Richard Hannon, trainer of Rousay
She won the race last year and goes back there in good form and we expect the better ground to be in her favour. She has a reasonable draw and we go there hopeful.

Ralph Beckett, trainer of State Occasion
She’s in good form but it’s nice to get her out as she’s missed a couple of engagements lately due to unsuitable ground and a minor bug. She’s training well and we're looking forward to the race.

John Gosden, joint-trainer of Running Lion and Liftoff
Running Lion is carrying a penalty but this looks like a nice spot for her coming back after her run in the Prix de Diane after which she came back with heatstroke. She was uncomfortable for a while but has trained well of late. Liftoff is not easy to place off her rating  but hopefully she can get a piece of some black type.

Jack Channon, trainer of Caernarfon
She came out of the Nassau in great nick where they only raced for two furlongs really as they went so slow. The trip is good for her and she has a great draw so we’re hopeful. I’m sure the Gosdens will have their filly tuned up but we’re looking forward to it.
Reporting by David Milnes

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