Brian Ellison: Sam's Adventure has a very good chance in Ascot handicap chase

3.00 Ascot
bet365 Handicap Chase |2m5f | 5yo+| ITV4/SKY

Tipster analysis

The best handicap performance of 2018-19 was not Tiger Roll in the Grand National, but Cyrname's 21-length win in this race. The 2020 renewal is likely to be a lot more competitive, with several strong form lines represented.

Newcastle provides a powerful form line. Two weeks ago, Domaine De L'Isle toyed with the reopposing Sam's Adventure, the pair leaving a last-time-out winner who had dictated well behind. The time before, Domaine De L'Isle won with similar ease at Chepstow, while Sam's Adventure was just touched off by Lord Du Mesnil. They are improving chasers well worthy of their place.

Domaine De L'Isle: beat Sam's Adventure at Newcastle last timeCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

The form Happy Diva represents needs little introduction, given she won the BetVictor Gold Cup, but it is worth pointing out that she ran just as well when going down narrowly to Lady Buttons next time and she handles testing ground.

Similarly, Bennys King lost little in defeat in the Rowland Meyrick last time – he appeared not to stay – and his previous run makes him notably interesting. He won a historically strong handicap on Ladbrokes Trophy day at Newbury in emphatic style.

You would be excused from sitting this race out, it is so competitive. If that is how you choose to play it, watch out for Kildisart shaping well again. He went up the seemingly unfavoured inside here when sixth over three miles last time, at a time when his yard was just starting to emerge from the doldrums. Their form is better now and, while it is suspected Kildisart needs further, this could set him up nicely for a big staying prize in the coming months.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

What the stats say

Punters have been rewarded for backing outsiders in this race over the last decade, as only one favourite has won this in the last eight runnings (Acting Lass at 7-4 in 2018).

Acting Lass: won for favourite backers in 2018Credit: Alan Crowhurst

Kerry Lee, trainer of Happy Diva, is in hot form with two winners from her last three runners.

What the trainers say

Ben Pauling, trainer of Kildisart
On this heavy ground I don’t think he necessarily needs three miles, he’s got top weight. I hope he runs a better race than he did last time, nothing really went right, so hopefully he’ll get his season back on track.

Sean Curran, trainer of Domaine De L'Isle
He’s come out of Newcastle in good order, obviously he’s gone up 10lb but he’ll love the ground and he’s got every chance. The trip will be no problem, it will be a good-staying two miles five furlongs and he ran over three miles last time. He did win easily enough last time and I’m hoping the handicapper is right in what he’s doing.

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Kayf Adventure
These are the right sort of conditions for him. He’s looking like he needs a bit further than two and a half now and he does cope with heavy ground well. The conditions are in his favour so hopefully he has an each-way chance.

Brian Ellison, trainer of Sam’s Adventure
He’s got a very good chance, he’ll enjoy the ground and the distance will be about right for him. He’s ran three very solid races against horses who are either well-handicapped or in great form, he’s doing nothing wrong. We’re getting a big pull with the claim of Jack Tudor.
Reporting by Tommy Churchyard

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