Attractive form lines could give Supreme contender the edge at Haydock

2.05 HaydockSky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) | 1m7½f, 4yo+ | ITV4/RTV

Tipster analysis

In what is widely seen as an open-looking year among the two-mile novice hurdlers, the race known as the Sky Bet Supreme Trial looks likelier than usual to live up to its name.

Both Edwardstone and Thebannerkingrebel are in the 'feasible winners' bracket of the Supreme ante-post market. Splitting them in this pre-Cheltenham clash requires careful consideration.

First glance might well point towards Thebannerkingrebel. He has the better form in terms of RPRs, enough to nullify his penalty which he receives for winning a Listed event over course and distance on Betfair Chase day. With course suitability in the bank and parity on hurdles form (he was superior in bumpers), should he not be the favourite?

Thebannerkingrebel: runs out an easy winner of the Listed novices' hurdle at HaydockCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

It is not so simple. The form of his last two runs, the first being a last-flight fall at Wetherby when looking to narrowly hold sway over Proschema, is shaky. Neither of the placed horses in the race he won here last time have covered themselves in glory since, while the fancied Proschema has since flopped.

Edwardstone’s hurdles form is a lot more attractive. He beat Fiddlerontheroof – who subsequently won the Grade 1 Tolworth – at Wincanton on debut, then emphatically overcame a penalty when beating Harry Senior at Aintree.

That rival has since won a maiden on the Welsh National card and was fancied for last week's Leamington Novices' Hurdle at Warwick before being pulled out on veterinary advice.

Edwardstone over-raced at Aintree and that is the thinking behind connections fitting a hood here. He may not need it as a contested pace would seem likely in theory.

Thebannerkingrebel has tended to lead, while Stolen Silver did the same at Cheltenham last month when achieving form that gives him a fighting chance here. Outsider Snookered seems the likeliest to take them along, though, having bossed small fields on all four starts prior to coming unstuck in a bigger field at Musselburgh on New Year's Day.
Keith Melrose, betting editor

What the stats say

Small fields are the norm here, but there is the fewest set to go to post since subsequent Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner Cinders And Ashes beat two rivals in 2012.

Five of the last nine winners started favourite. No winner was sent off bigger than 7-2.

What the trainers say

Jamie Snowden, trainer of Thebannerkingrebel
This has been the plan since he won the Listed novices' hurdle at Haydock in November. He has a 5lb penalty, which makes life trickier, but he has Graded bumper form to his name and goes there with every chance. He’s in great form.

Alan King, trainer of Edwardstone
His form is solid and there are grounds for thinking there's a lot more to come as he's raced much too freely each time. He's pretty laid back at home, which suggests his keenness is something we can crack as he gets used to racing. We're going to try to help him by fitting a hood, but I'm concerned about the ground.

Brian Ellison, trainer of Snookered
He’s gone up a lot in the weights so it would be hard to win another handicap off 140. Last time at Musselburgh the track was far too sharp and the ground was quicker than ideal, but he’s just running here for the prize-money.

Nigel Twiston-Davies, trainer of Stolen Silver
He ran very well at Cheltenham last time and has won on the heavy. It's a hot race, but it's good money and he's not far behind on the figures.
Reporting by Graham Dench

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