'A clear round would be nice' - Pic D'Orhy's jumping a key factor in Grade 2

Friday: 2.55 Ascot
Howden Noel Novices' Chase (Grade 2) | 2m3f | 4yo+ | Sky

Ask yourself this: how important is fluent jumping in a novice chase around Ascot? An answer of crucial, paramount or necessary might be enough to put you off the classy Pic D'Orhy in this 2m3f contest.

There is little doubt that the Paul Nicholls-trained six-year-old holds a class edge – his official rating of 152 puts him 7lb higher than his closest rival – but his six chase starts have been littered with untimely errors.

Pic D'Orhy has fallen on two occasions – at the tricky third-last over this course and distance against Chantry House last November and in the Grade 2 Berkshire at Newbury last month.

Since the start of 2019, horses who have fallen on their most recent start before running in a novice chase in Britain have a 14 per cent strike-rate (33-232) for a £1 level-stakes return of -£53.06. That statistic makes for grim reading.

Given he's the most likely winner granted a clear round, taking the 6-5 depends on your trust in his jumping. There are probably better bets elsewhere.

Pic D'Orhy was fourth in this race last year, and if he comes up short again ratings suggest the prolific Faivoir will take advantage. Dan Skelton's six-year-old needed every yard of this trip to deny Torn And Frayed here last month and will be sticking on gamely.

Faivoir: a winner of four of his last five startsCredit: Edward Whitaker

Stamina is also the main asset of Gladiateur Allen, who had been running over 3m before making a winning start to his chase career over this trip at Exeter. That form looks strong, although he might prefer softer ground.
Race analysis by Tom Collins

What they say

Jane Williams, trainer of Gladiateur Allen
He's a nice type but could have done with softer conditions. On the plus side, he likes the track and has plenty of potential. We're not worried about the penalty he has to carry and we just hope he can continue to progress on just his second start over fences.

Gary Moore, trainer of Fifty Ball
We were pleased enough with his run last time at Newbury and he's back up in trip, but it looks a tough race. He's a sound enough jumper and if you're not in these races you can't win them.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Pic D'Orhy
A clear round would be nice – if he does that he should go very well. He looked like he was going to win at Newbury last time and jumped well until he made that silly mistake, which has been the story of his life in some ways. We've done a lot of different schooling with him since and, on some nice ground, we would hope for the best.

Richard Rowe, trainer of Up The Straight
You can put a line through his last race as they went off too quick and he could never get involved. We were keen to get him into a small field after that, but this is hot enough. What he does have is plenty of experience and hopefully he can get some prize-money.
Reporting by David Milnes

Read more:

2.20 Ascot: 'Forget the cost, he's very good' - Henderson focused for Jonbon's biggest test

Much-vaunted and unbeaten Jonbon seeks to win over the betting public at Ascot (Members’ Club)

Catch our new in-depth review of the weekend's racing every Monday in the Racing Post. With big-race analysis from Grand National-winning jockey Leighton Aspell, Chris Cook's take on the weekend action, eyecatchers from the Raceform team, weekly awards and more, it is not to be missed.