What the British and Irish are saying about their chances in the Melbourne Cup

Herbert Power winner on perfect mark – O'Brien

Contenders: Yucatan, The Cliffsofmoher and Rostropovich

His son Joseph may have managed it at the first time of asking last year, but in ten attempts since 2006 Aidan O'Brien is yet to win the Lexus Melbourne Cup. That said, he has never had such a strong hand.

His three-pronged assault on the race that stops a nation is led by Yucatan, who has been favourite since romping away with the Herbert Power – form that was franked on Saturday when the second and third that day pulled clear to fight out the finish of the Lexus Stakes.

It was a dazzling performance under James McDonald, who keeps the ride, and it means the stable's number one jockey Ryan Moore is on Cliffs Of Moher, the horse who the collective brains trust that is O'Brien, Coolmore and the Lloyd Williams family believed was their best chance, who since getting off the plane has been known as The Cliffsofmoher.

The challenge is rounded out by Irish Derby runner-up Rostropovich, who as a three-year-old gets a handy weight-for-age allowance and would not be without a chance.

"Yucatan was a horse we couldn't really get 100 per cent right through the whole year, but he was still running very nice races in those Group races," said O'Brien.

"The way it fell, it looked like he was going to really suit the Melbourne Cup but he was too low in the weights, so we he had to win to get in, and we saw what happened. He loves fast ground and might not have ever got that back home.

"We didn't run him again after the Herbert Power because we felt he was on a perfect mark. Everything seems to be going very well and I imagine James McDonald will try to get a nice prominent position. The better the ground, the better his chance. He looks on a very good mark."

On his other two runners, he added: "Cliffs Of Moher was a very classy horse at home so has plenty weight. We've been very happy with his two runs in Australia and we're looking forward to seeing how he'll go.

"The Melbourne Cup is a difficult race and you're never sure what horse it will suit, but we always thought he was maybe one who could run a big race. Ryan will take his time on him.

"Rostropovich won a Group 3 at Leopardstown and the plan was to go to Australia and he seems to be in off a lovely weight. We felt we needed to give him a run to sharpen him up – that's why we ran him in the Cox Plate.

"Ryan was very happy with him and felt that going further would suit. Wayne [Lordan] is riding him and it will be interesting."

Yucatan

Pros Produced one of the most impressive trials for the Cup in recent history when destroying the Herbert Power field

Cons Not the most reliable sort with just two wins in 12 starts before travelling to Australia, and stall 23 of 24 not ideal

The Cliffsofmoher

Pros Drawn well in stall nine and a consistent performer at Group 1 level who is giving weight to horses rated his inferior, rather than taking on Europe's elite off level weights

Cons Another rare visitor to the winner's enclosure with just one win in 14 starts since he stepped into Group company and carrying more weight than the stats suggest is ideal

'We haven't brought him to mess about'

Contender: Magic Circle

The Ian Williams and Marwan Koukash double act is a riotous one. It is not always easy to fathom the source of the confidence with which Koukash is intoxicated, but both trainer and owner certainly ooze it.

There are a lot of laughs when listening to the two talk all things Magic Circle, from Koukash reiterating his promise to collect the trophy in a G-string – which he promptly produces – to his insistence that, while his wife may divorce him were he to go through with it, "it's easier to find a new wife than win a Melbourne Cup".

In among the bluster are some killer lines. None more so than when Williams, who plays the straight man to Koukash's joker, is asked about not having run since the Henry II Stakes at Sandown in May.

He said: "This horse is a very competitive stayer. We had intended to run in the Lonsdale Cup and we thought he was good enough to be very competitive with Stradivarius, but we wanted to come here.

"He's an older horse, he's got miles on the clock. Several people have criticised the fact we haven't run him, but we've brought him here to win a Melbourne Cup, we haven't brought him to mess about. We want him at his very best on Tuesday."

Magic Circle drew stall 17 and on the complications that presents, Williams said: "He's got the stamina. He's also got a quite incredible turn of foot, which we saw at Chester, but he's a little bit of a diesel engine getting into the race.

"The draw isn't the best, but an inside draw would have been worse. It gives Corey [Brown, jockey] a chance to get him balanced and challenging around the outside from the home bend."

Pros Been a revelation since joining Ian Williams, winning both races this year by six lengths, and certainly stays the trip

Cons May lack the tactical speed to get a position and could be trapped very wide on the sharp first bend

Appleby happy with Godolphin hope

Contender: Cross Counter

There are very few Group 1s worldwide that Sheikh Mohammed has not won, and even fewer he wants more than a Melbourne Cup. He has three excellent chances of changing that, with bookmakers rating the Charlie Appleby-trained Cross Counter the best of them, Godolphin's other runners being Best Solution and the Australian-trained Avilius.

Like last year's winner Rekindling he gets the weight-for-age allowance as a three-year-old, and like the last three winners sneaks in at the foot of the weights on 8st – 8st 6lb or less has been carried to victory in six of the last ten Melbourne Cups, and with six of the eight who fall into that category this year 22-1 or bigger, the Gordon Stakes winner and Great Voltigeur runner-up looks the best hope for that particular trend.

In-form Appleby, who won an 11th Group/Grade 1 this year through Line Of Duty in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf on Friday, said: "He's ticking all the right boxes. Kerrin [McEvoy, jockey] gave him a spin the other day and was pleased how he went, he went well.

"Stall 19 isn't ideal, I wish we were lower, but Almandin won from 17 two years ago so it's not impossible and we go there hopeful."

Pros Four-and-a-half length rout of Dee Ex Bee in the Gordon Stakes is eyecatching form, he gets in with a lovely light weight, and has a master aboard in Kerrin McEvoy

Cons With just seven starts and defeats both times he's encountered double-figure fields he may lack the street-smartness for the assignment and he has yet to race over a trip within half a mile of this. Also had a slight setback while at Werribee

Bin Suroor: Caulfield Cup winner has good chance

Best Solution

Saeed Bin Suroor has finished second in the Melbourne Cup three times, with Central Park in 1999, Give The Slip in 2001 and Crime Scene in 2009, but this year believes he is saddling the best horse he has ever run at Flemington.

His topweight Best Solution is officially the best horse in the field, as he was when winning the Caulfield Cup for a third consecutive Group 1 win. It was a performance deserving of upgrading given he broke last and had to come around the entire field, but he went unpenalised by Racing Victoria's chief handicapper Greg Carpenter.

Racing off the same mark after such a strong performance, and with Pat Cosgrave keeping the ride, he has to have every chance again.

Bin Suroor said: "It was a big run last time and he ran well in the second biggest handicap in Melbourne. He's been fresh and well since and is ready to go.

"I think he's got a good chance, the two miles is unknown but the style of racing down here is different to Europe and he should go close. His jockey knows him well."

Ebor winner has big chance – Crowley

Muntahaa

Jim Crowley is a man on a mission to win the Melbourne Cup. He arrived a week early, choosing to skip the potential riches of the Breeders' Cup, in order to better prepare for his ride on Muntahaa.

Crowley had never been to Melbourne before but rode two winners at Bendigo on Wednesday, kicked the jetlag on the head by Thursday, rode in barrier trials at Flemington on Friday and finished second in the Group 2 Mumm Wakeful Stakes at the track on Saturday. He also has two rides on Cup day before Muntahaa.

He said: "You don't get many chances to ride in a big race with such a good chance, I didn't want to leave any stone unturned. I came down early because I think he has a big chance and I want to get a feel for the track.

"He was impressive in the Ebor, he's got the right credentials and with a bit of luck should have a good chance – I think he has some of the strongest form in the race."

He added: "The most important thing is to get him into a rhythm. They get racing quite early, he stays well, so I don't want to be too far back. Ideally I want to be on their heels turning in, then a clear run is the most important thing."

Morrison: we're looking at fourth or fifth

Marmelo

This time last year Marmelo was contesting favouritism for the Melbourne Cup after an encouraging run in the Caulfield Cup. But it was a run his trainer Hughie Morrison did not want to have and it proved detrimental to his chance as he finished only ninth in the big one.

Since then Morrison believes he has learned several things, that his horse is likely best fresh – and he goes straight into the race this year – and that Marmelo is probably not quite good enough to win.

"We planned the whole year around having a good break after the Kergorlay and going straight to the Cup," said Morrison. "I think we have to be pretty happy with stall ten and he's looking better than he did last year, which is what we hoped as we were well stuffed last year.

"In any handicap you've got to find a bit more than your previous form and we have to find four or five pounds to be in the front two or three. If we run our race we might be fourth or fifth."

Lexus Stakes winner in better shape than his trainer

A Prince Of Arran

Charlie Fellowes' stable star Prince Of Arran, who has an 'A' in front of his name in Australia, forced his way into the Melbourne Cup with an impressive victory in the win-and-you're-in Lexus Stakes on Saturday.

Racing over two miles just three days after having to win over a mile and a half is not ideal, and his trainer said: "The horse is great, he's in much better shape than his trainer. He's polished off his food, which was the only thing I was concerned about, and he trotted up perfectly so it's all systems go.

"It's always a question whether they'll be ready to run three days later, but I don't think he had an overly hard race, I'm gobsmacked at how well he looks and as long as we have no issues over the next day or so I don't see why he can't run a big race."

Jardine: he's got a live outside chance

Nakeeta

Iain Jardine is in giant-slaying form, with Bedrock having downed Samcro over hurdles at Down Royal last Friday, but were he to land the 2018 Lexus Melbourne Cup it would be an even bigger shock.

Last year's Ebor winner Nakeeta, who finished fifth in the Cup 12 months ago, has been in nothing like the same form in 2018, but Jardine is not ruling out a big run.

He said: "He got in, which is great, and has a decent draw this time. You can put a line through his last run as it was a farce of a race, he needs an end-to-end gallop and they went no pace; he was full of running turning in and got stopped.

"He's up against it, but has got a live outside chance and has had a good prep since being in Australia."

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