It could be a happy weekend for Lee if Diva makes the expected improvement

Judging the likely fitness of runners is a challenge at this time of year. Assessing whether returning jumps horses will be fully tuned up, or undercooked, and then predicting which are likely to step up from their first runs involves piecing together limited relevant information to reach a reasonable conclusion.

Samcro underlines these points. The Ballymore Novices' Hurdle winner relinquished an unbeaten record on his return last month when runner-up to Bedrock at Down Royal. Trainer Gordon Elliott is expecting Samcro to be fitter on Sunday in the Unibet Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown. “We’ve lost the battle but not the war,” he said after witnessing Samcro’s surprise defeat.

Samcro needs to improve. The Racing Post Rating of 161 he achieved at Down Royal, which incidentally was a career-best, is 4lb shy of the average winning RPR benchmark of 165 for the Morgiana.