Can he? Five things that stand between Tiger Roll and a third Grand National win

Almost as soon as Tiger Roll had crossed the line for a memorable second Grand National win on Saturday the question came: would he be back next year to try to equal the legendary Red Rum?

He is a best-priced 8-1 for a third Grand National victory but, as well as 30 fences and the marathon trip, there are several other obstacles in his path. Here we examine the most significant.

Participation

After Tiger Roll's heroic success, owner Michael O'Leary suggested the little legend may not even turn up in a third National, stating next year's Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival would be his target and retirement could beckon if successful there.

Michael O'Leary: has indicated Tiger Roll will not run in next year's Grand NationalCredit: Alan Crowhurst

It could simply be asking too much of Tiger Roll to be in even better mental and physical condition in 12 months time.

But trainer Gordon Elliott is much more open-minded about a crack at a third National and could help change the mind of O'Leary, who was once adamant Apple's Jade would not run in a Champion Hurdle only for her to do so, albeit unsuccessfully.

Weight

One of the biggest challenges facing Tiger Roll next season will be the weight he carries. Although we have no way of knowing for sure, it is unlikely he will be lumbered with anything other than the top weight of 11st 10lb after being officially rated 172 following Saturday's success.

Red Rum: was second in 1975 and 1976 when carrying top weightCredit: Stewart Fraser

Many Clouds carried 11st 9lb to victory in 2015 but failed to follow up under topweight the following year and even Red Rum failed in his third and fourth attempts aged ten and 11 when heading the weights, eventually succeeding under 11st 8lb as a 12-year-old in 1977.

Like Tiger Roll, Abd-El-Kader (1850, 1851), The Colonel (1869, 1870) and The Lamb (1868, 1871) also won two Nationals, but no horse has ever won three in consecutive years.

Gold Cup runner-up Anibale Fly carried topweight this year and could manage only fifth, more than 16 lengths behind Tiger Roll.

Age

Tiger Roll will be ten next year but this is no impediment to success. Half of the National winners this century have been aged ten or older.

Ground

For all Tiger Roll has been versatile with regards to ground throughout his career, carrying topweight in heavy ground would not be easy.

He beat Pleasant Company by only a head on heavy going in 2018, carrying a weight of 10st 13lb and he would be carrying almost a stone more in 2020.

Arguably, Tiger Roll's greatest efforts have come on better ground. It was good ground when he strode away from his rivals in the Triumph Hurdle in 2014, his only Grade 1 victory, and good to soft in the 2017 National Hunt Chase, as well as good to soft in this year's Grand National.

Tiger Roll: only beat Pleasant Company by a head on heavy ground in 2018Credit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Opposition

Colin Tizzard always seems to do well at Aintree and although dual Topham Chase winner Ultragold failed to stay this year, he could have a number of higher-class potential runners in 2020.

Welsh Grand National victor Elegant Escape could line up, while stablemate Mister Malarky looks a strong stayer on the up.

Could the race even come under consideration for Tizzard's 2018 Gold Cup hero Native River? The marathon trip would certainly be to his liking.

Could next year's Grand National come into consideration for Native River?Credit: Mark Cranham

The National Hunt Chase has proved a good trial for the big race in recent years, and Le Breuil and Discorama showed the required stamina and tenacity when battling it out at this year's festival.

Ms Parfois and Blaklion both missed this year's race due to injury and cannot be discounted either.

From this year's race, Magic Of Light could be back for more, softer ground would suit Walk In The Mill and a better preparation could help 2017 National hero One For Arthur improve on this year's sixth.

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