'You can't factor in improvement' - handicapper explains his ratings method

BHA handicapper Martin Greenwood insisted last year's utter domination of the Grand National by Irish horses has not changed the way he frames the weights.

Sixth-placed Blaklion was the only British-trained runner among the first 11 finishers at Aintree in 2021, while Ireland also provided four of the first five home in the previous running in 2019.

But Greenwood pointed to the size of the overseas contingent in a modern National as a key factor, along with the fact that Irish challengers tended to fit the profile of horses likely to be ahead of the handicapper.

"If 50 per cent of the entries are Irish, they're going to be well represented in the race and at the finish," he said. "And last year their runners were less exposed over staying trips, whereas a lot of the UK horses were more exposed, some of them were veterans and got taken off their feet, and most of them were done at halfway. I don't think that's anything to do with handicapping, it's down to profiles."

Martin Greenwood: 'You can't handicap according to country and you can't factor in improvement in horses'Credit: David Carr

Outlining how he assessed entries for the only race in which he is allowed to use discretion in allocating weights, rather than relying on published BHA ratings, he said: "You can't handicap according to country and you can't factor in improvement in horses; you can only assess them on what they've achieved, not what they may achieve.

"A horse like Minella Times was very unexposed over staying trips and I can't factor in what he's going to achieve over four miles. I can only put ratings on what I believe. And then there's a two-month gap until the race, so a lot of horses are well in, Minella Times was one of them."

Greenwood believes it may be a similar story in 2022. "You could argue there are one or two less exposed British horses this year, but still the majority of those with that profile are Irish," he said.

"The most unexposed horses at staying trips are always going to give you headaches because you know down the line they are probably a lot better than the mark you've put on them."

Randox Grand National card and betting (Aintree, Saturday, April 9)

Read these next:

Tiger Roll ruled out of the National over 'ridiculous rating and unfair weight'

2022 Grand National: key quotes from the trainers as the weights are announced

Sign up here. Place your first bet on racing pools for a minimum of £10. Win or lose, you will receive £30 in Tote Credit, redeemable against racing bets only. Tote Credit cannot be withdrawn, exchanged, or substituted and expires after seven days. Qualifying bet is the first racing pool bet added to the betslip. Only qualifying bets placed between 00:00 04/02/2022 and 23:59 20/02/2022 are eligible for this promotion. Ten to Follow bets do not qualify. Totewin will be the qualifying bet when a Totewin and a Toteplace bet are struck at the same time. UK & ROI customers only. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. begambleaware.org.