Novices' handicap chase 5-4 favourite to be dropped at Cheltenham Festival

The Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase is by far the most likely race to make way for the new Mares' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, according to bookmakers Paddy Power, who offer 5-4 against such an eventuality.

It was announced on Monday morning that the Grade 2 Mares' Chase will be run for the first time in 2021 and replace an existing contest, the identity of which has yet to be decided.

However, Paddy Power believe the novices' handicap chase – which has only taken place at the meeting since 2005 – will be in line for the chop.

Paddy Power spokesman Paul Binfield said: "We’re pretty sure it won’t be the Gold Cup that’s chopped, but we make the novices' handicap chase favourite to go as the runners have the option of the JLT Novices’ Chase and the other handicap chases."

The firm make the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – best known as the Fred Winter – the 9-4 second favourite to be axed. That race has also only existed since 2005, along with the novices' handicap chase, Albert Bartlett and the cross-country chase, all added upon the expansion of the festival to four days.

Also prominent in Paddy Power's market are the National Hunt Chase (5-1) and Kim Muir Handicap Chase (7-1), while it is 12-1 bar.

It would be a surprise were the National Hunt Chase axed as in the same press release it was revealed the conditions of the race will change from 2020, with the key takeout being a reduction in distance by two furlongs. The race has been contested over just shy of four miles.

Paddy Power:
Novices' Handicap Chase 5-4
Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 9-4
National Hunt Chase 5-1
Kim Muir Handicap Chase 7-1
Martin Pipe Conditional Handicap Hurdle 12-1
Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase 12-1
Mares’ Novice Hurdle 14-1
25-1 bar

Why these races could be in danger

Racing Post reporter Tony McFadden identifies three races he believes could come under scrutiny

Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase (2m4f)

A handicap in name only. The field is often covered by just a few pounds, effectively making it a lower-class version of the JLT Novices' Chase. The race is usually an intriguing puzzle, a good betting heat and was won by a classy horse in A Plus Tard this year, but it is not really serving its purpose.

Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase (2m4½f)

Another race which is often a tremendous betting heat but it has little to distinguish it from the slew of similar races which take place at the track during the season. In fact, it's not even the most prestigious chase the track stages at a distance around two and a half miles. That honour surely falls to the BetVictor Gold Cup at the November meeting.

Thursday: Lizzie Kelly adds to her Cheltenham tally with a win in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate on Siruh Du LacCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

Kim Muir Handicap Chase (3m2f)

Staying handicap chasers are not short of opportunities. Kempton stages a valuable three-mile handicap chase just three weeks before the festival, while there is also a decent prize on offer at Aintree. Plus at the festival itself there is, of course, the Ultima Handicap Chase, run over 3m1f, which is simply a better quality race. Yes, the Kim Muir, which is run over further and on a more galloping course, provides a sterner stamina test, but a handicap for horses too slow to win over 3m1f hardly seems necessary at racing's showpiece festival.

Which race do you think should be removed to make way for the Mares' Chase? Email your views to editor@racingpost.com