2022 Tingle Creek: who wins the big race at Sandown based on previous trends?

It's nearly time for the Betfair Tingle Creek Chase. Saturday's Sandown feature (2.55) is one of the highlights of the jumps season, attracting the heavyweights of the two-mile division. Down the years, the Tingle Creek has been won by some of the greatest names in the game and here we look at who is most likely to follow in the footsteps of racing royalty, based on previous trends.

Ratings

The recent Tingle Creek roll of honour reads like a who's who of jump racing. Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy, Un De Sceaux and Altior have all won it during the last decade.

The highest Racing Post Rating achieved by a Tingle Creek winner was Sprinter Sacre's 178 posted in 2012 when he finished 15 lengths clear of Kumbeshwar. He is closely followed by his former stablemate Altior, who posted a figure of 177 in 2018.

This is a race of the highest calibre and the lowest RPR of a winner since 2012 is 167, achieved by Un De Sceaux in 2016 and Politologue in 2017. Last year's winner Greaneteen ran to an RPR of 170.

The average RPR of a Tingle Creek winner since 2012 is 171. Out of this year's contenders, only Greaneteen and Shishkin have achieved or surpassed that rating during their careers so far.

Can Shishkin bounce back from his Cheltenham disappointment?Credit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

Age

Since 2012 the Tingle Creek has been won four times by a six-year-old – Sprinter Sacre (2012), Dodging Bullets (2014), Politilogue (2017) and Defi Du Seuil (2019).

Politologue followed up to win in 2020 as a nine-year-old, with Sire De Grugy (2015) the other winner aged nine in the last ten years.

The average age of a winner since 2012 is 7.2, but given the profile of horses who usually line up in this race, it would suggest age isn't too important, with the majority of runners usually in or approaching their prime. As Sprinter Sacre showed, if they're good enough, they're old enough.

Class

This is a top-class race for top-class performers. Since 2012 every Tingle Creek winner has had a Grade 2 win on their CV before scoring at Sandown.

There are only two winners who were yet to win a Grade 1 race before winning the Tingle Creek – Sire De Grugy (2013) and Politologue (2017).

For Sire De Grugy and Politologue, winning the Tingle Creek was a springboard to further top-level honours, including repeating their wins at Sandown in 2015 and 2020 respectively.

Un De Sceaux and Altior went toe-to-toe in the 2018 Tingle Creek ChaseCredit: Edward Whitaker

Odds

Given this race often attracts subsequent Champion Chase winners, there has been a number of short-priced winners over the last decade.

The two who stand out are Sprinter Sacre, who was sent off a 4-11 favourite in 2012, and Altior, who justified odds of 8-13 in 2018.

In total, six favourites have won the race since 2012 (Sire De Grugy was 7-4 joint favourite in 2013), with Greaneteen the biggest-priced winner in that period at 12-1.

Jockey

Barry Geraghty and Jamie Moore are the only jockeys to double up in this race since 2012. Geraghty partnered Sprinter Sacre to victory seven years before his win on Defi Du Seuil, while Moore was on board Sire De Grugy for his two victories.

Harry Cobden and Nico de Boinville won the race in 2017 and 2018 respectively and they will ride the market leaders Greaneteen and Shishkin on Saturday.

Trainers

Paul Nicholls has enjoyed a fine season and has an impressive record in the Tingle Creek. He's trained the winner 12 times in all, with four coming in the last decade, including the 2020 and 2021 runnings. Nicky Henderson has won it twice with Sprinter Sacre and Altior – can Shishkin prove he's of the same calibre?

Verdict

There are question marks over the fitness of Shishkin, who is returning to action after being pulled up in the Champion Chase before being diagnosed with a rare bone condition. However, he is clearly the class act in the race and if he is back towards his best he has the perfect profile to see off last year's winner Greaneteen.

2022 Tingle Creek offers

• Paddy Power are giving away free bets to new and existing customers, and all you need is an account. Sign up here.
• Sky Bet are offering new customers free bets when they sign up. You can get them, along with money-back specials and extra places, here.
• Betfair have lots of offers, extra places and money-back offers. Sign up for a new account here.
• To get a free bet from Ladbrokes today, simply sign up to a new account here.
• Don't have a Coral account? They have an offer for new customers here.
• bet365 have a new customer offer available. Sign up here.
• New William Hill customers can claim free bets here and benefit from their money-back offers here.
• If you're a new customer, Tote will give you a free bet. Sign up here to claim.

Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (2.55 Sandown, Saturday)

Betfair: Evens Shishkin, 9-4 Greaneteen, 5 Edwardstone, 8 Gentleman De Mee, 33 Funambule Sivola, 100 Dunvegan

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