Look for Ascot also-ran at Goodwood, plus why analysts were wrong on Saturday

One of my favourite angles to take when punting is to study at a race in advance and try to figure out what the final field could look like, factoring in where I think value could lie.

The King George Qatar Stakes (3.35) at Glorious Goodwood on July 29 is one such event and it has seen numerous developments in the last couple of weeks.

Raasel threw his hat into the ring with success in Sandown's Group 3 Coral Charge on Coral-Eclipse day, after which his trainer Michael Appleby suggested the Group 2 on the Sussex Downs would be next.

However, both the current 3-1 favourite Royal Aclaim, who won the City of Walls Stakes in serene style on Saturday, and 6-1 shot Flotus, who won the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York on Friday, will skip the race and instead head straight to the Nunthorpe.

Others towards the top of the betting also have questions to answer. Twilight Calls ran a career-best to be second in the King's Stand but it remains to be seen whether as a hold-up horse he will be as effective at this sharp, downhill venue.

Fans of him and Raasel will take confidence in the fact patiently ridden horses can win this race, as Suesa proved last year, and while George Strawbridge's filly will be back for more, she hasn't set the world alight in the interim.

With the long-term weather forecast decidedly hot, I'd rather back a horse who shows good early pace and there are a few options.

Other than when unshipping his rider at the royal meeting, Khaadem hasn't been seen since winning the Palace House Stakes in blistering fashion in April. His only previous run at this track saw him win the Stewards' Cup off a mark of 107 and he's a 10-1 chance.

The bonny Acklam Express can be backed at the same price and will be involved if he can replicate his shock third in the King's Stand. He boasts distance as well as course form thanks to a nursery win two years ago, which still stands as the juvenile course record.

Ponntos, soundly beaten in the King's Stand, could bounce back at GoodwoodCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

The biggest-priced alternative and the most interesting one is 16-1 shot Ponntos, who blazed an incredible trail in the King's Stand. I'm no sectionals aficionado but they can be a useful tool and in this case they're very supportive of his performance, even though he only beat three horses home.

He was the fastest in the opening furlong of the race by 0.2sec, which according to our betting editor Keith Melrose translates to more than a length, and at Longchamp when winning the Group 3 Prix de Saint-Georges by a similar 0.18sec.

Gate speed isn't key at a testing track like Ascot, but it certainly is at Goodwood, where prominent racers like Battaash (admittedly a bit of a freak) and Take Cover (less so) have thrived.

Ultimately it wasn't a surprise when the keen-going Ponntos faded at Ascot, but if ridden slightly more conservatively in the middle part of the race he could be dangerous.

It's also worth remembering Ponntos has previously won over six furlongs, so he's no short-runner, and already beaten two of his possible rivals at Goodwood this season as Suesa and Clarendon House were behind him at Longchamp.

Pet peeve

As racing commentators it is often easy to fall into the trap of using cliches to describe performances instead of looking into them more objectively. For all I try to stray away from doing this, I know I have been guilty of it in the past.

However, when several people described Chindit's Summer Mile win on Saturday as a form boost for Baaeed, I couldn't help but think it was slightly lazy analysis.

Technically of course they are correct, as Chindit had finished behind the unbeaten superstar on his last two starts, but I would argue it actually did very little to enhance Baaeed's form.

Chindit got the better of Mutasaabeq in Saturday's Group 2 Summer MileCredit: Charlie Crowhurst (Getty Images)

Chindit was entitled to win the race as he already had a Group 2 under his belt as a juvenile and, having finished eight and five lengths respectively behind Baaeed the last twice, was operating in significantly calmer waters.

I would argue Alcohol Free's July Cup win was actually a bigger boost for the form (she was fourth in the Lockinge) and that comes with the caveat of coming in a totally different division. As it stands, the older mile division is weak and lacks depth.

If Real World had won a Group 1 in a canter, it would have been a fair assessment, but Chindit, as admirable as he is, winning a sub-par Group 2 by a head? I don't think so.

Drawing conclusions

If ever a race displayed a case of cast-iron draw bias then Saturday's July Cup would have to be it.

Taking nothing away from the magnificent Alcohol Free, the first three broke from the three highest stalls in 14, 13 and 12.

Of course pace is a significant factor, and in this instance the front-running Naval Crown likely gave those racing on the middle to far side a tactical advantage too.

Upgrade the runs of those drawn away from the action in the July CupCredit: Edward Whitaker

Subsequently, some of those in behind can have their runs upgraded. Chief among them was the Chris Wall-trained Double Or Bubble, who was drawn in stall five and produced a career-best effort to fill the same position.

A three-time winner over seven furlongs, if the ground is decent then expect her to go close against many of these in the Prix Maurice de Gheest over slightly further.

Similar comments apply to Happy Romance, who perhaps had the worst part of the bargain as she was drawn in one. She looked outpaced on the fast ground in the early stages but kept on resolutely to be eighth.

She was a good fourth in the Sprint Cup last year and is well capable of matching or bettering that this time around.

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