Paul Kealy finds 10-3 winner Blow Your Wad and has more festive fancies for Tuesday

Members' Club tipping is our top-tier betting advice service, starring our biggest and best experts.

This and lots more exclusive insight is published every night on racingpost.com from 6pm.

Members' Club tipping is also available daily in the Racing Post newspaper

Blow Your Wad
12.45 Kempton
1pt win

July Flower
1.05 Aintree
1pt each-way with Hills or Sky Bet (four places)

Empire Steel
1.35 Wetherby
1pt win

Bravemansgame
2.30 Kempton
2pts win

It's not often a horse gets raised in the handicap for getting beaten ten lengths, but in the case of Blow Your Wad his tiny 1lb mark-up for finishing second on his chase debut was probably justified and he might just get punters off to a flyer in the opening handicap chase (12.45) at Kempton.

Other than when out of his depth in a couple of Grade 1s, Blow Your Wad had a solid first season over hurdles last term, and he reappeared with a career-best in that sphere when second in a good race at Chepstow on his return in October.

He was firmly put in his place when second of four in a novice handicap on his chase debut at Sandown last month, but he was clear second best and time has since shown he was attempting the impossible in conceding 12lb to the winner Le Patron, who was running off a mark of just 122 but is now rated 150 after winning the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase back at Sandown.

What we saw from Blow Your Wad was a sure-footed jumping technique that should enable him to have a decent career in this sphere, and he's certainly young enough to have plenty of improvement in him yet.

That goes for most of these, of course, including fellow five-year-old Idalko Bihoue, who fell on his chase debut at Warwick but got the job done in commanding fashion at Cheltenham.

He appeals as the biggest danger despite an 8lb rise, although it's worth pointing out that Nicky Henderson has a good record in this event and his Russian Ruler, a course winner over hurdles, will no doubt have been primed for this following an encouraging first try over fences at Ascot behind subsequent winner Djelo.

It is hardly the most punter-friendly card at Kempton as we don't really know how good Il Est Francais is despite heading the market for the Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices' Chase (1.20) and Constitution Hill is only for the big-hitters in the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (1.55).

Having taken on Hermes Allen on his chase debut at Newbury I have to say I was fully won over by him there and make him the one to beat from the home team, but the nagging worry that Il Est Francais is the superstar the French seem to think he is means I'm giving it a swerve.

The third of the six-runner Grade 1s is the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (2.30) and I can only see three possible winners of that – and they're the top three in the betting.

With Shishkin having not managed a run this season and not entirely certain to want to change that, it quickly boils down to two, and at the prices Bravemansgame is the bet for me.

Allaho is very much the one to beat on his best form, but he has had his injury problems and has run only once in the past 18 months.

That was last month in the Clonmel Oil Chase, in which he was sent off at 1-4 in a three-runner race with one serious rival, who was a stablemate who never made any attempt to put him under pressure.

With Frodon and The Real Whacker in the line-up Allaho is not going to be left alone here, and surely that will set things up nicely for Bravemansgame, who for all that he hasn't been at his best in two runs so far this season, has not run really badly and is very much at home at Kempton.

An unusual last-fence blunder cost him in the Charlie Hall, and I'm not going to hold a Betfair Chase defeat to course specialist Royale Pagaille on soft ground at Haydock against him, and we will surely see the real Bravemansgame back at Kempton.

He won the Kauto Star by seven and a half lengths as a novice and the King George by 14 last season, although it would have been under half that if L'Homme Presse hadn't unseated when just being claimed at the last.

Throughout his career Allaho has routinely been a better horse after the new year rather than before it (his best spring form is 10lb superior to anything from October to December), while the opposite tends to be the case with Bravemansgame, who can bag his second King George and an incredible 14th for Paul Nicholls.

The two ITV-televised races away from Kempton are interesting enough betting heats, not least the Grade 1 William Hill Formby Novices' Hurdle (1.05) at Aintree.

Run as the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown until now, the race has attracted ten runners, including Royal Bond winner Farren Glory, who is not even favourite despite already having one Grade 1 in the bag.

It's true the Royal Bond did not look the strongest ever running, and that Farren Glory looks more of a stayer than a two-miler, but he does comfortably have the best form and I expected him to be market leader.

The layers instead prefer Nicky Henderson's Jango Baie, who only scrambled home in a maiden hurdle at Ascot against Tellherthename (who has won since and reopposes), but did admittedly look like the run would do him the world of good.

You get the impression he's some way behind the best of the Henderson hurdlers though, and I'd rather take a chance on something else against the form horse.

Favour And Fortune's good bumper form makes him of interest even if he clearly needs to improve on his two hurdles successes in weak company, but the one to take a flyer on is French raider July Flower.

I'd be the first to admit I'm no expert on French racing and I certainly wouldn't want to back a French raider at short odds, but July Flower is a 10-1 shot having quickly developed into one of the leading four-year-old hurdlers in France.

She won two AQPS bumpers last season, one of them a Grade 1, and while she flopped in the big bumper at Aintree when moved briefly to Henry de Bromhead last spring, she has done really well back with Mickael Seror, winning her first two and then pulling miles clear of the rest when second to Losange Bleu in the Grade 1 Prix Renaud du Vivier.

The odds-on winner had miles more experience in the locker, having already won four times at Graded level, so that was a decent performance, and with a 7lb sex allowance she looks worth chancing in what could be a weak race for the grade.

Finally, in the William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (1.35) at Wetherby Empire Steel can hopefully make amends for his fall when looking the winner of the race in 2021.

He'd breezed into a share of the lead that day only to fall three out, but he's stayed on his feet ever since and more often than not been very competitive.

He surprised Coral Gold Cup winner Le Milos at his favourite track Kelso last season when wrong at the weights with all the runners and he clearly didn't stay when eighth in the Scottish National after that.

He also looked to run out of puff over 3m2f on his return at Kelso in October, going down by just over four lengths having been headed only at the last, but he was ten lengths ahead of Saturday's Tommy Whittle runner-up Burrows Diamond, and he's going to be much more at home over the bare 3m here.

Read more Boxing Day tipping:

'He has a brilliant record going right-handed' - Tom Segal with Tuesday's best bets on a bumper programme  

'Get on this 14-1 shot for the Paddy Power Chase right now' - David Jennings delivers his Leopardstown fancies  

The Punt Acca: Harry Wilson's three horse racing tips from across the tracks on an action-packed Boxing Day  

Tuesday's free racing tips: five horses to consider putting in your multiples  

Kempton Placepot tips: Paul Kealy's perm for the £150,000 guaranteed pool  

Sign up to the Tote here. New customers online only. £/€10 minimum stake (if each-way then minimum £/€10 Win + £/€10 Place). Receive £/€30 Tote Credit within 48 hours of qualifying bet settlement. Seven-day expiry. Qualifying bet is the first racing pool bet added to the betslip. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. begambleaware.org. Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators that our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing.