North American foal crop predicted to drop to lowest level for 60 years

The Jockey Club is projecting the North American foal crop to slip another 2.7 per cent to 18,000 for 2024, based on an analysis of the reports of mares bred submitted this year. This year's foal crop is projected at 18,500.

The North American Thoroughbred foal crop has not been around 18,000 since 1964, when 17,343 foals were reported for the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. The North American crop rose to 18,848 for 1965.

Since 2010, the foals registered in the US have accounted for 91-93 per cent of the North American crop and averaged 93 per cent since 2019. Applying this market share to the 2024 projection puts the US foal crop at an estimated 16,740, which is less than half of what the crop was in 2007 ahead of the Great Recession in 2008-09.

The aftermath of the Great Recession on the foal crop was felt most keenly in 2010 and 2011, when the number of registered foals dropped more than 12 per cent each year. The decline would slow but it left the 2010-2019 decade reporting 232,935 foals, which was 37 per cent less than the previous decade. Even if the North American foal crop holds steady at 18,000 through 2029, it would still leave the total North American crop for 2020-29 down 21 per cent from the decade before.

Declining foal crops have corresponded with a decline in the number of US races, which is down 28 per cent from 2010 through 2022 and the number of starters is, predictably, down 34 per cent during the same time frame. Purses in the US, however, reached a record at nearly $1.31 billion in 2022 and the average purses per starter is up 92 per cent to $31,460. The average purse per race is up 76 per cent to $39,155 since 2010.

The foal crop projection is computed by using reports of mares bred received to date for the 2023 breeding season. RMBs are to be filed by August 1 of each breeding season.

Additional foal crop information is available in The Jockey Club's online fact book at jockeyclub.com/factbook.asp and in the online state fact books.

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