Tote Ten to Follow: the 50 key horses you'll need to succeed

Last year’s Flat Ten To Follow competition was the first to kick off with the Epsom Classics, rather than those at Newmarket and the impact of that change on the competition is reflected in the list of the top ten horses it produced.

The ten horses to score the most points were, in order: Baaeed, Kyprios, Highfield Princess, Naval Crown, Alpinista, Kinross, Bayside Boy, Vadeni, Trevaunance and Summerghand. I’m sure plenty of you will have spotted there’s just a single three-year-old among them, and that one – Trevaunance – was the most low profile among the ten, racking up her points with two big-priced wins in France rather than in top races.

When the entry window for the competition moved from April to May it meant there was a lot more time for lightly raced, unexposed three-year-olds to thrust themselves into the spotlight and suddenly earn a place in the list of 500 horses from which you can pick your ten. However, the lesson of last year is that you should be far more wary of three-year-olds than previously, which is why this list of 50 key horses, unlike last year, is tilted in favour of the older brigade.

Admittedly Desert Crown, his Sandown defeat notwithstanding, would surely have been in the top ten had he had the chance to add to the points accrued in winning the Derby, but with the mile Classics no longer in the competition there are fewer chances for the Classic generation to stick to their age group at the top level, so do bear that in mind and rely on those who can be expected to hold their own against older horses.

Other changes caused by the new start date are that a two-year-old pecking order is just beginning to be established, with several now on the shortlist, and the approach of Royal Ascot means we have a firmer idea of which international superstars will be running there, hence more of those names are up for selection. 

On these points, my strong advice would be to exercise caution. Many two-year-olds can look potential superstars at this time of year but, come the Group 1 races in the autumn, most tend to have been overtaken by later-maturing peers, while anyone picking an international star is putting too many eggs in the single basket of Royal Ascot.

As in all years, the best play is to keep it simple and that means looking for horses with Group 1 potential, given such races make up 21 of the 23 bonus races. Of the other two bonus races, good luck to anyone trying to pick the Ayr Gold Cup winner at this stage and, while the Ebor might be slightly easier to predict – progressive stayers being rarer than progressive sprinters – you’ll want one at the right end of the handicap so they can win one or two before York.

Enter the Tote Ten to Follow here

Adayar
5yo horse
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
The brilliant winner of the Derby and King George in 2021 was held up by injuries last year but still finished a half-length second in the Champion Stakes. He won easily first time out at Newmarket this year and is primed for a big season, although I fear connections’ focus on 1m2f might not entirely suit this strong stayer.

Al Riffa
3yo colt
Joseph O’Brien
Last year’s National Stakes winner missed the Irish 2,000 but might find better opportunities over longer distances, with a pedigree packed with stamina on the dam’s side.

Arrest
3yo colt
John & Thady Gosden
The Chester Vase winner is a leading Derby contender and looks a top middle-distance colt. That Chester win came with plenty of cut in the ground, as did his best form in a progressive two-year-old campaign, so a quick surface might be an issue.

Auguste Rodin
3yo colt
Aidan O’Brien
How strong is your faith in Aidan O’Brien? A brilliant winner of the Vertem Futurity Trophy last year, Auguste Rodin fluffed his lines completely in the 2,000 Guineas and under usual circumstances would be double-figure prices for the Derby. But O’Brien still believes in him and he was always going to be a middle-distance horse.

Azure Blue (left) claims a major scalp in defeating Highfield Princess in the Duke of York Stakes Credit: Edward Whitaker

Azure Blue
4yo filly
Michael Dods
This lightning-quick filly has stormed through the grades, winning five of her last six races including the Duke of York Stakes last time. Group 1 sprints await and she can’t be discounted.

Bay Bridge
5yo horse
Sir Michael Stoute
Last year’s Champion Stakes winner was gaining overdue acceptance into the Group 1 winner’s circle that day having been a beaten favourite in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes and Eclipse on ground quicker than ideal. He was third in the Prix Ganay on his return and I suspect he’ll come up short at the top level more often than not.

Broome
7yo gelding
Aidan O’Brien
This veteran has been a standing dish in top middle-distance races in recent years but might have belatedly found his calling as a stayer having won the Dubai Gold Cup in March. Don’t rule out a repeat at Royal Ascot.

Buckaroo
4yo colt
Joseph O’Brien
Group 1 ambitions have been on hold for a year with this colt, who looked to be developing into a star last spring but suffered an injury when sixth in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. He won well on his return and could well be a force at the top level.

Cachet
4yo filly
George Boughey
Last season’s 1,000 Guineas winner is set to have a crack at sprinting. It remains to be seen how that goes but either way she seems highly versatile and should have plenty of opportunities in good races.

Chaldean
3yo colt
Andrew Balding
Few horses will have a better chance of picking up early bonus points given he’s a fairly short price for the St James’s Palace Stakes. The key question for players is how the three-year-old form will then stack up against the older milers.

Coltrane shows his love of Ascot when taking the Sagaro Stakes on his return Credit: Edward Whitaker

Coltrane
6yo gelding
Andrew Balding
This late developer has blossomed into a top stayer and heads to the Gold Cup with leading claims. He has course form at Ascot but also won the Doncaster Cup last season and will surely be plying his trade in Cup races regardless of what happens at Ascot.

Desert Crown
4yo colt
Sir Michael Stoute
Opinion is divided after his defeat in the Brigadier Gerard but it’s certainly too soon to disregard last year’s brilliant Derby winner from your calculations. It might not have been the strongest Derby but he won it very easily and will be given every chance to prove himself the superstar he looked that day.

Eldar Eldarov
4yo colt
Roger Varian
The St Leger hero made a satisfactory reappearance with his staying-on second in the Yorkshire Cup and remains on course for the Gold Cup. All the top staying races will surely be on his agenda.

Emily Dickinson
4yo filly
Aidan O’Brien
This slow-burning filly shot to Gold Cup favouritism with her first-time-out win in the Vintage Crop Stakes. A defeat at Navan saw her relinquish that position but the race wasn’t run to suit and she will be hard to beat if given a thorough test of stamina.

Emily Upjohn
4yo filly
John & Thady Gosden
This hugely exciting filly bounced back from a King George no-show when running away with a Group 1 on Champions Day and should be a force in top middle-distance races.

Free Wind
5yo mare
John & Thady Gosden
The Gosdens have a fine group of middle-distance mares and this one might just slip under the radar given she lacks the Group 1 form of Emily Upjohn and Nashwa. However, she’s won her last three at Group 2 level, spaced out across three seasons, and has huge potential.

Haskoy is driven home by Frankie Dettori to collect the Aston Park Stakes at Newbury for her first Group race successCredit: Edward Whitaker

Haskoy
4yo filly
Ralph Beckett
This lightly raced filly was second past the post in the St Leger and won a 1m4f Group 3 at Newbury on her return. Connections were mulling a Gold Cup bid after that but either way she should find opportunities in good middle-distance and staying races.

Highfield Princess
6yo mare
John Quinn
One of the great success stories of last season, this mare never stopped improving and completed a Group 1 hat-trick in the Flying Five at the Curragh. A solid return in the Duke of York suggests she’ll be hard to beat in all the top sprints again.

Hukum
6yo horse
Owen Burrows
A bad injury clearly hasn’t affected this high-class middle-distance performer judging from his defeat of Desert Crown at Sandown. He won the Coronation Cup last year and can contend for more Group 1 honours.

Hurricane Lane
5yo horse
Charlie Appleby
I can’t think of many horses harder to work out but plenty might consider him worth a punt because he has the potential to win top middle-distance races, both on the strength of his 2021 form and his latest runaway win in the Jockey Club Stakes. The issue is he’d run so lamentably in between.

Inspiral
4yo filly
John & Thady Gosden
Royal Ascot was the scene of one of last season’s outstanding performances from this filly in the Coronation Stakes and will see her return probably as favourite for the Queen Anne. She never hit those heights again but did win the Prix Jacques le Marois and will be a big player in more Group 1 mile races.

Kinross
6yo gelding
Ralph Beckett
The penny finally dropped with this gelding last year when he won four in a row, two at Group 1 level, proving equally effective at six and seven furlongs. Soft ground certainly helps but might not be essential.

Laurel
4yo filly
John & Thady Gosden
This filly fluffed her lines in the Lockinge but, after just five runs, she is open to significant improvement. She went close in last year’s Sun Chariot and there are lots of Group 1 opportunities for fillies over a mile.

Little Big Bear gets back in the sprinting groove under Frankie Dettori to collect the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock Credit: john grossick

Little Big Bear
3yo colt
Aidan O’Brien
Came back to sprinting with a bang in yesterday’s Sandy Lane Stakes and the champion two-year-old, who had flopped over a mile in the 2,000 Guineas, is now a top-class prospect for all the season’s Group 1 sprints, starting in the Commonwealth Cup.

Luxembourg
4yo colt
Aidan O’Brien
Victory in the Irish Champion Stakes rescued a frustrating 2022 for this colt, who looked set for big things initially but was then held up by injury. He’s had a clear run this time but a below-par return at the Curragh means his profile is becoming patchy.

Maljoom
4yo colt
William Haggas
There were few more unlucky losers last year than this horse in the St James’s Palace Stakes, in which he was a fast-finishing second having been unable to find a gap. He’s a Group 1 miler on that evidence and, while he hasn’t run since, he has a Queen Anne entry.

Marshman
3yo colt
Karl Burke
With a trainer who goes from strength to strength and who thinks the world of this sprinter. He was a beaten favourite in the Gimcrack and Middle Park but made a bright start to 2023 when winning a Group 3 at Chantilly. There could be much more to come.

Mawj
3yo filly
Saeed bin Suroor
The 1,000 Guineas winner had to be very good at Newmarket to see off the top-class Tahiyra with the pair clear. She’s all set for the rematch in the Coronation Stakes and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out.

Meditate
3yo filly
Aidan O’Brien
The 1,000 Guineas didn’t work out as well for this filly, but that was a funny weekend for Aidan O’Brien’s stars after travel issues. Soft ground might not have helped either and, having proved herself time and again in top races last year, she should be back in the Group 1 mix on quicker ground.

Military Order (right) keeps Waipiro at bay in the Lingfield Derby Trial Credit: Mark Cranham

Military Order
3yo colt
Charlie Appleby
This brother to 2021 Derby and King George winner Adayar is likely to tread a similar path after impressing in two runs this year. His Lingfield win makes him a leading contender for Epsom.

Modern Games
4yo colt
Charlie Appleby
Nothing fazes this five-time Group 1 winner – international travel, a busy schedule or a bite from an opponent, as we saw when he won the Lockinge. The Queen Anne awaits and he can be a regular top-level contender.

My Prospero
4yo colt
William Haggas
Fourth place in the Lockinge was a solid return given it seemed to underline this lightly raced colt’s need for further. Third in last season’s Champion Stakes and more Group 1 targets will be on his agenda.

Nashwa
4yo filly
John & Thady Gosden
This dual Group 1 winner last season has the Prince of Wales’s Stakes as her first big aim following today’s Prix Corrida. It remains to be seen whether she is up to that level but there will be softer Group 1 opportunities regardless.

Native Trail
4yo colt
Charlie Appleby
The champion two-year-old of 2021 has won just once since and looks to have been overtaken by plenty of his peers. That said, he was still second in the 2,000 Guineas and third in the Eclipse, while he should come on for a Newmarket reappearance second.

Noble Style
3yo colt
Charlie Appleby
Those of a forgiving disposition might well give last year’s brilliant Gimcrack winner a second look. He looked a pure sprinter when sixth in the 2,000 Guineas and it might be that his slightly below-par run in the Carnarvon Stakes just came too soon.

Paddington
3yo colt
Aidan O’Brien
This colt burst into the big time with his win in the Irish 2,000 Guineas but had already been quietly progressive, winning his previous three. A clash with Chaldean at Royal Ascot is eagerly anticipated.

Passenger makes a striking debut in the Wood Ditton Stakes at Newmarket's Craven meetingCredit: Edward Whitaker

Passenger
3yo colt
Sir Michael Stoute
This twice-raced colt was the Dante eyecatcher, the race used as a springboard to Derby glory by his trainer with Desert Crown on his second run last year. He’s probably no Desert Crown but you never know.

Point Lonsdale
4yo colt
Aidan O’Brien
The precocious two-year-old has become a middle-distance star with seemingly no intervening period after 2022 was pretty much lost to injury. He’s returned in good form but only scrambled home in the Huxley Stakes and more is needed to win a Group 1.

Running Lion
3yo filly
John & Thady Gosden
Four victories on this spin, including an impressive display in the Pretty Polly, have made this filly a serious Oaks contender, although that looks a hot division.

Sacred
5yo mare
William Haggas
This mare got back to winning ways at Lingfield first time out this year with a third Group win. All three have come at 7f but she also went close in the Platinum Jubilee and is versatile.

Sakheer
3yo colt
Roger Varian
A 2,000 Guineas disappointment for whom sprinting is back on the cards. He didn’t fare badly in seventh and had looked brilliant at six furlongs, most notably in the Mill Reef. He looks a Commonwealth Cup player.

Savethelastdance
3yo filly
Aidan O’Brien
Was it too good to be true? That’s the question with this 22-length winner of the Cheshire Oaks who was propelled to Oaks favouritism. It was a moderate race but the sectional times paint a glowing picture and she is improving fast.

Sense Of Duty
4yo filly
William Haggas
Here’s a dark horse for Group 1 sprints. She hasn’t competed above Group 3 level but has won all four races, the last one by a wide margin in her toughest test. Her trainer has vowed to campaign her in top races.

Shaquille shows he is a sprinter on the rise in storming home in the Carnarvon Stakes at NewburyCredit: Edward Whitaker

Shaquille
3yo colt
Julie Camacho
While several Commonwealth Cup contenders are dropping in trip on the back of failures over further, this one has been going from strength to strength. A wide-margin handicap win at Newmarket was followed by victory in the Carnarvon Stakes and he looks a definite Group horse.

Soul Sister
3yo filly
John & Thady Gosden
The Musidora looked a strong Oaks trial and was won in terrific fashion by this filly, who put a disappointing return in the Fred Darling behind her. She looks potentially high class over middle distances.

Sprewell
3yo colt
Jessica Harrington
This colt would be a heartwarming Derby winner given his trainer’s battle with cancer. It’s a possibility, too, on the evidence of a fine win in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown.

Tahiyra
3yo filly
Dermot Weld
The Irish 1,000 Guineas awaits today and, if all goes to plan, it will then be a Royal Ascot rematch against Mawj. She was just edged out by that rival at Newmarket but had an interrupted preparation and her spectacular win in the Moyglare Stud is hard to forget.

The Foxes
3yo colt
Andrew Balding
The Dante winner has built up a solid book of form and was bred for longer distances. I suspect he might find one or two too good at Epsom.

Vadeni
4yo colt
Jean-Claude Rouget
Victories in the Prix du Jockey Club and Eclipse and a second in the Arc made this colt last season’s champion three-year-old on Racing Post Ratings. He should come on for his fourth in the Prix Ganay and will be a big player in Group 1 races again.

Westover
4yo colt
Ralph Beckett
Further Group 1 targets await this leading middle-distance performer. However, his only win at the top level came in a weak Irish Derby.