'It is a massive overreaction' - Keith Melrose goes against the grain with his Ten to Follow

The Tote Ten To Follow is all about the bonus races. Where the Flat version differs most from the jumps is the distribution of those contests. 

While four of the 21 bonus races in the latest jumps season were handicaps, there are only two of 23 on the Flat. Additionally, both are on the other side of the mid-August transfer window.

So the task on the Flat is not so much to find ten to follow as they rise up the ranks. Instead, find horses who will win a hatful of Group 1s. Last year's top scorers included Baaeed, Kyprios, Highfield Princess and Alpinista. 

One of the more surprising entries on last year's high-score table was Trevaunance. She won two minor French Group races at big prices, which propelled her up the table. Horses who can mop up lesser Pattern races, from stables who do not mind going abroad, can add an important edge.

Most lists will congregate around a shortlist of obvious Group 1 horses. Three are on more than 50 per cent of lists. Those three horses are unsurprising. We have two Classic winners (Chaldean and Tahiyra), as well as one fancied to join the club on Friday in Oaks hotpot Savethelastdance.

Out of the three, Tahiyra is the one who appeals most to me. She has a bonus race as her likely next target (Coronation Stakes) and beyond that she will stick to fillies' races, which provide easier pickings.

Even if Savethelastdance lives up to her billing at Epsom on Friday, she has a future in tougher races. That ten of the bonus races are middle-distance Group 1s makes sense, as they are the most competitive races in this part of the world. For that reason you want horses like those we saw in Sunday's Tattersalls Gold Cup. I am willing to forgive Vadeni. He clearly was not right at the Curragh. It is a massive overreaction that Desert Crown is on five times as many lists. 

Hurricane Lane is also under-selected at the moment. His 2022 was a write-off, but in 2021 he got an ideal Ten To Follow campaign and his reappearance was encouraging. I will also include Emily Upjohn, a rival in Friday's Coronation Cup. She has not yet stood up to a full campaign, but the lure of fillies' races is always a strong one.

Emily Upjohn: makes her reappearance in the Coronation Cup at Epsom on FridayCredit: Edward Whitaker

If you liked Desert Crown, you may well love Passenger for the Derby. He is high on my shortlist for Saturday and, depending on the result, he will likely be aimed at the King George or given a prep for the St Leger. Either route is a lucrative one.

Once you have your middle-distance squad nailed down it is time to tour the divisions. The hardy, improving Coltrane looks likely to feature in all the major staying races and could become a serious points earner. 

Among the milers, Modern Games has hardly been missed. That will be because of his Lockinge win. Yet it is his hardiness that gets him on my list, ahead of Inspiral whose CV has a few gaps.

Finally, punters should leave some space on their list for their individual specialities. For me, that means sprinters. So I will pick three speedballs, even though that is an outsized representation given the make-up of the bonus races.

The likeable Highfield Princess is a must – almost 40 per cent of players have not got it wrong. Her consistency and adaptability are rare for a modern sprinter. I will also include Azure Blue, who looks just as likely for the Nunthorpe or July Cup. Both are bonus races and have less overlap than you might think.

Then there is Noble Style, who was warming up for his new career at Newbury last time. I like Shaquille, who won that race, and obviously respect Sandy Lane winner Little Big Bear but in the Ten To Follow you have to side with connections who will make most use of their horses. Few are better at that than Charlie Appleby, which is why Noble Style gets the final place in my ten.

Keith Melrose's Ten to Follow

Azure Blue
Coltrane
Emily Upjohn
Highfield Princess
Hurricane Lane
Modern Games
Noble Style
Passenger
Tahiyra
Vadeni

To enter the Tote Ten to Follow click here. Entries close on Thursday, June 1

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