US racing tips: Tom Collins picks out two worthwhile bets at sunny Belmont Park

Risk Profile
9.40 Belmont Park
2pts win

Dreamer's Disease
10.12 Belmont Park
1pt win

A couple of New York Stallion Series Stakes races headline Belmont's Saturday evening card, the most interesting of which is the Spectacular Bid (10.12) run over 7f on turf for colts and geldings.

The majority of the field remain unexposed after a handful of starts and judging potential improvement is a tough way to handicap, but Step Dancer is the worthy favourite for trainer Barclay Tagg after a creditable third-place finish in a competitive allowance optional claimer over 1m½f.

There is no doubt that he has the ability to win, as proven by his Awad Stakes success as a juvenile, and he should be primed for this on his third run back off a layoff, but I don't like his draw in gate 13 and this deep closer will need plenty of luck in running.

Although a fast pace is expected, this race may be dominated by those with early speed and therefore Dreamer's Disease gets the nod for trainer Robertino Diodoro, who rarely runs his horses in New York but has a good strike-rate when doing so.

He is the speed horse in this race – even if he's duelled early, there's little chance that he won't head the field – and despite often running on dirt, proved his ability to handle turf when he broke his maiden at Ellis Park last August.

Dreamer's Disease has been set two tough assignments this season in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile and Texas Derby, and weakened after leading in both events. Now he faces New York-breds on the step down in class and should prove tough to pass.

In the preceding $55,000 Starter Allowance (9.40) pay extra note to recent maiden winner Risk Profile, who tackles winners for the first time.

The former Chad Brown-trained colt took an age to lose his tag but produced a big career-best effort on debut for George Weaver last time at this track.

Despite winning over 6f that day, he finished his race off powerfully under minimal riding, and the step up to a mile should allow him to dictate matters. Expect him to make it 2-2 for new connections.

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