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Horse racing tips

Our man on the ground Andrew Hawkins previews Saturday's top-class Rosehill card

Mustajeer
4.50 Rosehill
2pts win

Carif
4.50 Rosehill
1pt each-way

Something Fast
6.50 Rosehill
1pt win

The final day of the three-weekend Golden Slipper Festival wraps up the Rosehill portion of Sydney's autumn carnival. Should racing continue in Australia, the action next heads to Randwick for The Championships over the next two Saturdays.

On Saturday, though, we have a meeting headlined by the Tancred Stakes, Australia's only weight-for-age Group 1 over 1m4f.

The Tancred is, in theory, Australia's equivalent to the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, although these days it is rare for the best horses at a Classic distance to head this way.

Back in the 1980s, before European raids on the Melbourne Cup became commonplace, the Tancred Stakes attracted the first fly-in, fly-out visitors to Australia. Clive Brittain came closest to success with 1989 runner-up Top Class. After 1990, though, the raids came to a halt and they have been few and far between ever since.

However, while this Tancred may not feature any European-trained raiders, the race could easily have been run last year with much the same field at York or Goodwood.

Ebor winner Mustajeer, Danceteria and Mugatoo, who gained minor notoriety in Britain for the impudence of Jamie Spencer's winning ride on him at Doncaster last May, form a three-headed assault for syndicators Australian Bloodstock and trainer Kris Lees.

Yorkshire Cup runner-up Southern France (now trained jointly by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace) and the ever-consistent Mirage Dancer (Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young) are other former residents of the British Isles, while British-bred Avilius began his career in France but has been with James Cummings for almost two years.

The horse to beat is the Chris Waller-trained Verry Elleegant, who returns to a mile and a half for the first time since a dominant win in the Australian Oaks almost 12 months ago. She was outgunned by an inspired Tom Marquand on Addeybb in last weekend's Ranvet Stakes over 1m2f and makes a quick return here.

A soft track should be in her favour but she has been backed into around even-money and any potential value is long gone.

Second favourite Avilius defends his title, having won very comfortably last year. However, he has won only once in nine starts since and he has looked below his best of late. His record at 1m4f is hard to crab, though. It stands at two wins and a second (to Cracksman in the Prix Niel) from three starts.

The Sky High Stakes two weeks ago may prove a worthwhile guide. Winner Master Of Wine was dominant there and the German import would be challenging for favouritism were he lining up here.

Instead, the placed horses, Mustajeer and Carif, look the plays in the Tancred at longer odds.

The Ebor winner Mustajeer was tremendous first-up under a big weight in the Listed Parramatta Cup (1m1½f) and the very heavy track simply wasn't in his favour in the Sky High Stakes. He looks well suited and Nash Rawiller is riding in tremendous form. The key to him looks to be that he has a sharp but short burst of acceleration, so any sprint on him must be precise. Rawiller is a master of timing, though, and, just shy of double figures, he is a major player.

Carif is an outsider at around 30-1 in early markets. The four-year-old is improving run by run and he is a likely Melbourne Cup contender later in the year.

A son of two Group 1 winners in the same chessboard colours in So You Think and Norzita, his form at a mile and a half and beyond is solid and, with natural improvement, he could finish in the money at a big price. Hedge with him.

The second of the big features is the Vinery Stud Stakes, a Group 1 for the three-year-old fillies over 1m2f. It was in this race that Winx suffered her last unplaced run before she went on her tremendous unbeaten streak.

Chris Waller's Funstar and Jamie Richards-trained Probabeel have formed quite the trans-Tasman rivalry this season, meeting four times with the score three-one in favour of Funstar.

Both fillies step up to this trip for the first time. On pedigree, both should relish the extra distance. While Funstar is the justified favourite, there isn't the gap between the pair that the market suggests. With that in mind, Probabeel looks the bet at 7-2.

Among the other late races on the Rosehill card – those at a more reasonable time for those on the other side of the world – are the Group 2 Emancipation Stakes (7½f), in which Amangiri looks a solid play first-up for the Hawkes team and Tommy Berry, and the Group 3 Doncaster Prelude (7½f).

The Doncaster Prelude was the race in which Kingdom Of Fife made his Australian debut in 2011, scoring a 150-1 shock in victory.

Don't be surprised to see improvement from the Anthony Cummings-prepared Something Fast. He was poor first time up on a very heavy track, but an improving track should suit him and he is two from two on his second run after a break.

Also stepping out in Australia for the first time is Surrey Thunder, who was last seen when finishing sixth to Morando in the Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot in October. Formerly trained by Joseph Tuite, Surrey Thunder has been gelded since transferring to Sydney, where he is now in the care of Chris Waller. He runs in the 1.30, the first race on the card.


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