History suggests Little Big Bear is no 2,000 Guineas good thing

I don't dislike the Shergar Cup but nevertheless it was great to see an equine performance of real merit over the weekend when Little Big Bear exploded away from the field in the Phoenix Stakes.

I must confess, when I see a son of No Nay Never who has had five starts by the beginning of August I am immediately sceptical about his credentials for the 2,000 Guineas, for which he is the 5-1 favourite.

One of the first things to examine is his pedigree. He fetched €320,000 at the Arqana August Yearling sale last year and is a tall, well-muscled individual, which would indicate there is room for improvement.

The two best horses No Nay Never has produced are Ten Sovereigns and Alcohol Free. Both were July Cup winners and progressed from their two-year-old seasons to win Group 1s at three and – in Alcohol Free's case – at four.

However, that can't be said for many of the sire's progeny, with Arizona perhaps the best example of how his sire's precocious speed can fail to translate to performance at three.

He was sent off 9-1 for the 2020 2,000 Guineas but could only finish 11th behind Kameko and failed to figure in his other two starts that season.

However, there is far more promise on the dam's side, as his mother Adventure Seeker won a 1m2½f Listed race at three and one of her sons, Vin Rouge, has won twice over 2m. He too is by a speed influence in Zoffany.

Adventure Seeker is out of Bering, the French superstar who was second to Dancing Brave in the 1986 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, so there is sufficient evidence in Little Big Bear's pedigree to suggest he could succeed at three.

The next thing to assess is his style of victory and substance of form.

His Phoenix Stakes win was a career-best by 10lb on Racing Post Ratings, which is unsurprising considering he recorded a time just 0.01 seconds slower than Go Bears Go, who carried 1lb more and is rated 112, in the Phoenix Sprint Stakes.

The July Stakes-winning second Persian Force is a rock-solid juvenile, but whether or not he trains on is also questionable given he was precocious enough to win the Brocklesby and is by Mehmas, who retired after his two-year-old season.

The third, Shartash, took the scalp of subsequent Prix Robert Papin winner and Little Big Bear's stablemate Blackbeard on his penultimate start in the Railway Stakes and looks bred for further.

The form took a slight hit on Monday when Archie Watson revealed the fourth and 11-8 favourite Bradsell had suffered an injury in the race. He stumbled upon leaving the stalls and again later in the race so didn't have the opportunity to produce his best anyway.

History says Little Big Bear will be up against it in the 2,000 Guineas, as the last horse to win the Phoenix and the Newmarket Classic was George Washington in 2006.

His rider Kieren Fallon issued a glowing comparison in Monday's Racing Post, but this year's Guineas winner Coroebus hadn't even made his debut by this time last year and I'd be inclined to side with my initial assessment on his Classic credentials for the time being, although we will find out more in the National Stakes.

Nostrum could be a Champagne star

If it's a three-year-old prospect you're after then look no further than the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Nostrum.

I have seldom been as impressed by a two-year-old as I was by him at Sandown last month. A tall, elegant horse, he took my breath away in the paddock and some late each-way money proved well-founded.

Curiously, he was ridden aggressively by Ryan Moore, who is perhaps better known for giving debutants a sympathetic education, and responded to pressure three furlongs out.

He accelerated past the standard-setting leader Golden Speech, who had the experience of having run twice already, and hit the line well.

The 5-4 favourite Arrest was ridden more conservatively in the first set of Juddmonte silks, but made pleasing late gains. He got the better of 10-11 favourite Desert Order at the track on Thursday.

That race was won by Westover last year and Too Darn Hot in 2018, so it makes sense that he would have a considerable amount of potential.

The fourth, Manifested, outran his 25-1 odds when third at Ffos Las on Tuesday and the fifth, Batemans Bay, justified favouritism at Haydock on Friday.

Kingman's progeny can be fragile and don't often want further than a mile, but Nostrum is in the perfect hands with Stoute as he won't rush him.

The trainer has entered him in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster on September 10, a race the trainer won in 1979 with Final Straw, and I'll be eagerly watching to see if he turns up.

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