Crunching the numbers behind the sale used as a springboard to Royal Ascot glory

The Goffs UK Breeze-Up Sale has been a rich source of talent in recent times, with Group 1 winners such as Dream Ahead, My Dream Boat and Quiet Reflection all graduating from the Doncaster auction.

Plenty will target the two-year-old sales with one eye on Royal Ascot, and since 2016 the Goffs UK event has yielded more winners at the royal meeting than any other breeze-up outlet.

The five Royal Ascot success stories include three two-year-olds, with A'Ali landing the 2019 Norfolk Stakes, while three years earlier the same contest went the way of Prince Of Lir, who shared top lot honours at £170,000 with Ardad - winner of that year's Windsor Castle Stakes.

The aforementioned Quiet Reflection landed her first Group 1 in the Commonwealth Cup in 2016, the same year that My Dream Boat struck in the Prince of Wales's Stakes as a four-year-old.

View full Goffs UK Breeze-Up Sale catalogue

This steep rise in quality has been reflected by some significant growth in the Doncaster breeze-up market. In 2011 the sale averaged £29,205, with a top lot of £140,000 as 108 other two-year-olds contributed to turnover of £3,183,500.

By 2019, the last pre-Covid renewal, the average was £45,750, an increase of 57 per cent since 2011, while the top lot that year, subsequent Group 3 winner Al Raya, was knocked down to Stroud Coleman Bloodstock at an auction record £450,000. With 111 lots sold in 2019, aggregate sales hit £5,078,250 - up 60 per cent since 2011.

The sale's upward trajectory, in terms of prices and results, has been underpinned by a significant increase in investment by the breeze-up consignors bringing their product to market in Doncaster.

Although the racecourse is the ultimate arbiter of how strong a particular catalogue proves, it is possible to get a handle on quality, perceived or otherwise, through other methods. The majority of horses offered at the Doncaster breeze-up sales have already appeared at public auction as a foal or yearling - or, in plenty of instances, both.

A'Ali: Norfolk Stakes winner is one of five Goffs UK graduates to score at Royal Ascot since 2016Credit: Edward Whitaker

With detailed analysis of previous sales data for each lot offered as either a yearling or, where applicable, a foal, we are able to calculate the average price of the pinhooks in each catalogue.

The results from this analysis are shown in the graphic below and reveal the full extent of the lengths breeze-up consignors are now going to as they seek to bring a better calibre of horse to Doncaster.

In 2011, the year that David Redvers secured Pearl Secret at £90,000 and the market was headed by the £140,000 Red Duke, the average pinhooking price of the 193 lots catalogued was £15,360.

With the exception of 2017, each of the nine years that followed have seen consignors invest increasing amounts in the two-year-olds they bring to Doncaster, meaning that by 2020 the average pinhook price of the 165 catalogued lots was up to £32,075 - an increase of 109 per cent on the corresponding figure recorded in 2011.

Despite taking place during a global pandemic, last year's sale returned a set of figures that will prove a hard act to follow this time around.

The top lot, the Kingman colt from Gaybrook Lodge Stud, fetched £290,000 from Meah Lloyd Bloodstock, and headed a market with an average price of £44,665 and aggregate sales of £3,975,400. From 99 offered lots, 89 two-year-olds (90 per cent) found a buyer.

Last year's sale duly supplied Molecomb Stakes scorer Steel Bull, bought by Michael O'Callaghan for £28,000, and Firth of Clyde Stakes victress Umm Kulthum, a £75,000 signing by Richard Brown of Blandford Bloodstock.

As was the case at last week's Tattersalls Craven Sale, which brought the curtain up on the European breeze-up circuit, the average price of this year's Doncaster pinhooks has dipped, with an average previous purchase price of £24,525 down 24 per cent on the corresponding figure in 2020.

However, such a year-on-year drop in pinhooking outlay seems unlikely to reflect anything other than the wider market trend during 2020's yearling sales, with total spending in Europe down by 20 per cent last year as the industry grappled with the impact of the Covid-19 crisis.

Given the sires with progeny on offer, the sums many of the lots cost in their younger days, and the track record of those selling in Doncaster this week, there seems every chance that new names will be added to the Goffs UK Breeze-Up roll of honour in the not too distant future after Thursday's sale.

More breeze-up news:

Richard Brown on the breeze-up buying missions behind Ardad and Dream Ahead

No stopping Micky Cleere as next breeze-up date approaches

Pinhooking profit and a mystery bidder among the Craven Sale hot topics

Caravaggio colt claims top lot crown after fetching 240,000gns at Craven Sale

Elliott has last laugh as Practical Joke filly brings 360,000gns at Craven Sale