Mehmas 7-2 favourite to be leading first-season sire by number of winners

RaceBets have installed Mehmas as 7-2 favourite to supply more individual winners than any other first-season sire in Britain and Ireland before the end of the turf Flat season in November.

Mehmas certainly has all the qualities to be a prolific source of two-year-old talent. By a former leading freshman sire in Acclamation, he was a high-class juvenile himself, winning the July Stakes and Richmond Stakes and finishing placed in the Coventry, National and Middle Park Stakes.

He has been well supported at Tally-Ho Stud – which has launched the careers of four recent previous leaders in this division in Society Rock, Sir Prancealot, Zebedee and Red Clubs – and consequently his debut crop of 146 is the largest among his peers.

Kildangan Stud-based Belardo, a champion two-year-old by the increasingly influential Lope De Vega, is next in the market at 5-1. He has 92 juveniles to go to war with this year.

Territories, runner-up in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at two and successful in the Prix Jean Prat at three, has 110 debut offspring and is 7-1 third favourite to field most winners up to November. The Dalham Hall Stud resident is by Invincible Spirit, who once held the record for number of first-crop winners.

Coventry Stakes winner and Middle Park runner-up Buratino, whose 88 first-crop two-year-olds were conceived at Kildangan at a bargain fee of €5,000, is 8-1.

Four horses are rated a 10-1 chance to come out on top, and all have three-figure introductory crops: Pride Of Dubai (121 two-year-olds), The Gurkha (117), Twilight Son (122) and Vadamos (130).

It is a somewhat unusual year for first-season sires as the highest profile and most expensive new recruit to the European stallion ranks in 2017, Shalaa, retired to Haras de Bouquetot in France.

Shalaa may have fewer runners on this side of the Channel but is quoted at 8-1 in RaceBets' market to become the first of this year's freshmen to deliver a Classic winner in Britain, Ireland or France.

Territories is 5-1 favourite in that market, with Belardo and The Gurkha available at 6-1.

Awtaad and New Bay, bigger prices to lead the way by number of winners, are shorter to get the first Classic scorer, both pitched at 7-1. Dual Derby hero Harzand is rated a 9-1 chance.

Three freshman sires have runners in the first two-year-old race in Britain and Ireland of 2020 at Naas on Monday: Buratino with The Blue Panther, Markaz with Marketta and Prince Of Lir with Boasting.

Joseph Burke of RaceBets said: "It’s a long process each year when it comes to compiling the odds but, between us all, we tend to see a fair amount of individuals at the yearling sales from Deauville onward and then form an early opinion by October.

“Then we run the numbers. Obviously the more representatives a stallion has, the better chance he will sire more winners. Factors such as yearling prices and who the two-year-olds are in training with are all important.

“The one thing we have learned to ignore are the whispers that abound each year. We simply deal in facts and figures."

Last year's leading first-season sire in Britain and Ireland by number of winners in the space of the turf season, Gutaifan, was the 7-2 second favourite behind Muhaarar in RaceBets' opening show.

The bookmaker has kindly provided three £50 charity bets for the Racing Post bloodstock team to pit their wits against the market. Last year Martin Stevens successfully selected Gutaifan, so Racing Welfare will receive £225.

Martin Stevens, senior bloodstock journalist
Mehmas 7-2

Pedigree, performance, connections and crop size – Mehmas ticks every box and looks a worthy favourite. In fact, with 16 more two-year-olds than the next best represented, Vadamos, and 24 to 25 more than Pride Of Dubai and Twilight Son, he might be said to be generously priced.

James Thomas, deputy bloodstock editor
The Gurkha 10-1

A dual Group 1-winning miler at three, The Gurkha has plenty of ammunition on his side with 117 juveniles on the ground, and given they came from a book of mares comprising 28 per cent stakes performers, there is quality as well as quantity. His price may well be an overreaction to the fact he did not run at two, which was due to colic surgery, but he was certainly bred to be precocious, being by Galileo and out of the Group 3-winning two-year-old Chintz.

Nancy Sexton, bloodstock columnist
Territories 7-1

I've heard good things about Belardo but at the price I'll plump for Territories. He has some very nice stock, he's by the right sire in Invincible Spirit and he hails from one of the best stallion-producing families.

Leading first-season sire 2020
By number of individual winners Britain Ireland
March 23 to end of turf season
(Determined by official Racing Post stats)

RaceBets 7-2 Mehmas, 5 Belardo, 7 Territories, 8 Buratino, 10 Pride Of Dubai, The Gurkha, Twilight Son, Vadamos, 14 Adaay, Awtaad, 16 Estidhkaar, Kodi Bear, Prince Of Lir, 25 Bobby's Kitten, New Bay, 40 Coulsty, Markaz, Pearl Secret, 50 Fascinating Rock, The Last Lion, 66 Charming Thought, 100 Harzand

Win only, others on request

First to sire a Classic winner
In Britain, Ireland or France

RaceBets 5 Territories, 6 Belardo, The Gurkha, 7 Awtaad, New Bay, 8 Shalaa, 9 Harzand, 11 Vadamos, 12 Pride Of Dubai, 16 Fascinating Rock, 25 Bobby's Kitten, Buratino, 33 Twilight Son, 40 Kodi Bear, The Last Lion, 50 Adaay, Charming Thought, Mehmas, 66 Prince Of Lir, 150 Estidhkaar, 200 Coulsty, Markaz, Pearl Secret

Win Only, others on request

FIRST-SEASON SIRES 2020: THE FORM GUIDE

Adaay
Sire Kodiac
Best RPR at two 102
2017 stud fee £7,000
No. of two-year-olds 96
Yearling average 22,361gns

Awtaad
Sire Cape Cross
Best RPR at two 88
2017 stud fee €15,000
No. of two-year-olds 93
Yearling average 75,481gns

Belardo
Sire Lope De Vega
Best RPR at two 119
2017 stud fee €15,000
No. of two-year-olds 92
Yearling average 36,077gns

Bobby's Kitten
Sire Kitten's Joy
Best RPR at two 112
2017 stud fee £12,500
No. of two-year-olds 77
Yearling average 11,592gns

Buratino
Sire Exceed And Excel
Best RPR at two 117
2017 stud fee €5,000
No. of two-year-olds 88
Yearling average 11,366gns

Charming Thought
Sire Oasis Dream
Best RPR at two 117
2017 stud fee £8,000
No. of two-year-olds 50
Yearling average 18,833gns

Coulsty
Sire Kodiac
Best RPR at two 98
2017 stud fee €5,000
No. of two-year-olds 45
Yearling average 10,737gns

Estidhkaar
Sire Dark Angel
Best RPR at two 116
2017 stud fee €5,000
No. of two-year-olds 106
Yearling average 20,091gns

Fascinating Rock
Sire Fastnet Rock
Best RPR at two 67
2017 stud fee €10,000
No. of two-year-olds 61
Yearling average 29,354gns

Harzand
Sire Sea The Stars
Best RPR at two 71
2017 stud fee €15,000
No. of two-year-olds 72
Yearling average 42,419gns

Kodi Bear
Sire Kodiac
Best RPR at two 114
2017 stud fee €10,000
No. of two-year-olds 83
Yearling average 19,479gns

Marcel
Sire Lawman
Best RPR at two 118
2017 stud fee £5,000
No. of two-year-olds 20
Yearling average 7,000gns

Markaz
Sire Dark Angel
Best RPR at two 104
2017 stud fee €6,000
No. of two-year-olds 78
Yearling average 12,696gns

Mehmas
Sire Acclamation
Best RPR at two 114
2017 stud fee €12,500
No. of two-year-olds 146
Yearling average 32,534gns

New Bay
Sire Dubawi
Best RPR at two 77
2017 stud fee €20,000
No. of two-year-olds 77
Yearling average 42,859gns

Pearl Secret
Sire Compton Place
Best RPR at two 87
2017 stud fee £4,000
No. of two-year-olds 42
Yearling average 17,796gns

Pride Of Dubai
Sire Street Cry
Best RPR at two 112
2017 stud fee €15,000
No. of two-year-olds 121
Yearling average 22,706gns

Prince Of Lir
Sire Kodiac
Best RPR at two 107
2017 stud fee €5,000
No. of two-year-olds 77
Yearling average 14,503gns

Shalaa
Sire Invincible Spirit
Best RPR at two 120
2017 stud fee €27,500
No. of two-year-olds 82
Yearling average 109,808gns

Territories
Sire Invincible Spirit
Best RPR at two 112
2017 stud fee £12,000
No. of two-year-olds 110
Yearling average 47,966gns

The Gurkha
Sire Galileo
Best RPR at two Did not run
2017 stud fee €25,000
No. of two-year-olds 117
Yearling average 56,548gns

The Last Lion
Sire Choisir
Best RPR at two 118
2017 stud fee €12,000
No. of two-year-olds 45
Yearling average 36,731gns

Twilight Son
Sire Kyllachy
Best RPR at two 87
2017 stud fee £10,000
No. of two-year-olds 122
Yearling average 29,566gns

Vadamos
Sire Monsun
Best RPR at two Placed twice at two in France; no RPR available
2017 stud fee €10,000
No. of two-year-olds 130
Yearling average 28,518gns

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